Periodic Law: Bitcoin price is driven by a four-year halving cycle, the bottom of the bear market (MVRV
80, MVRV>3) requires gradual profit-taking.
Risk Management: Black swan events (such as Mt.Gox, FTX) frequently occur, 90% of assets stored in cold wallets, only keep what is needed for trading on exchanges, stop-loss at 5%-10%.
Technical Indicators: EMA50/200 golden cross confirms bull market, RSI
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Macroeconomic Drivers: US dollar depreciation (DXY
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Mental Discipline: Don't FOMO in a bull market (chasing the peak of 69,000 in June 2021 led to a 73% drop), don't panic in a bear market (clearing positions at 16,000 in January 2022 caused missing out on doubling), review trades weekly.
