The altcoin season generally occurs a year after Bitcoin's halving, which is set for April 2024. Theoretically, liquidity injection in 2025 should initiate this cycle.

However, during the period from 2024 to 2025, Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market remains strong, hovering around 60% of the total market capitalization. Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as high interest rates and quantitative tightening make it very challenging for altcoins to attract liquidity in the early stages.

Nonetheless, if Bitcoin's growth stabilizes, the massive capital accumulated may flow into altcoins, potentially driving their prices significantly higher.

Historically, altcoin seasons typically occur after Bitcoin reaches an all-time high and enters a consolidation phase. If Bitcoin can stabilize above $100,000, capital may eventually flow into altcoins.

Some analyses suggest that the probability of an altcoin season occurring in 2025 is around 50% - 60%, depending on whether Bitcoin can maintain the $100,000 level, thereby triggering capital rotation.

Overall, while it is difficult to precisely predict when the altcoin season will arrive, it is likely to happen if conditions such as stable Bitcoin performance, increased market liquidity, improved macroeconomic conditions, and reduced regulatory uncertainties are met.