You all know that last April, comrade Trâm initiated a global trade war. What he called 'Bring jobs back to America.' Causing the global economy to tremble. Stocks and coins have also plummeted dramatically, only gold is on a rising trend as the apocalypse approaches.
At that time, everywhere was filled with anxiety, and there was a fear that a 'tragedy' of the global financial system would come. People were gossiping about 'economic recession - global crisis...' and countless other things.
Yet recently, when there were news that America successfully negotiated or is negotiating with a few countries like 'England, Japan, South Korea, India...' and especially a few days ago when there was news that America had shaken hands with China. Reducing tariffs to just 30% for Chinese goods and 10% for American goods. Upon hearing this, the global financial system was as happy as the Vietnamese people when they heard the announcement 'At exactly 11:30 p.m., our army enters Independence Palace...' households felt like 'there was never any separation.' From stocks to coins, all surged impressively. No one worried about tariffs anymore, and no one mentioned recession or financial crisis. Instead, people talked about a dream ALTSS season when altcoins surged strongly....
So, has everything really stabilized? Will the global financial system grow from here?
In my personal opinion: 'The worst is just beginning.'
Why is that? Tariffs have been negotiated. So what awaits us ahead?
Have tariffs really been negotiated? Has the American economy truly stabilized? Has the global financial system successfully reset after the record money pumping during COVID-19?
The first country to successfully negotiate tariffs with America is England. To be frank, England and America are long-standing strategic allies, these two can be regarded as inseparable. Yet still, America imposed a 10% tariff. While previously, tariffs from England were only 2-5%. And even America had a trade surplus with England. So we can basically imagine that 10% will be the baseline tariff for comrade Trâm. Even if they are close allies, they will still face a 10% tariff, so don't expect to ask for 0%. Other countries are basically similar. Even if negotiations occur, tariffs will be imposed higher than before, and surely comrade Trâm will play the tariff card with China as he did from 2016-2018. There's no way Trâm would let China thrive.
So how does this relate to the global economy? How does it relate to the American economy?
Simply put, the American economy will 90% face recession. In the first quarter of this year, it already recorded negative growth, and historically, when there are two consecutive negative quarters, it officially enters a recession. With the current situation of trade wars everywhere, do you think the second quarter can achieve positive growth? Or even simpler, when goods are taxed, the first victims are the American people. Now, if you buy a shirt that costs $100, because of taxes, it suddenly rises to $130 while wages remain the same or even lower, then the economy cannot possibly thrive.
Next, the FED maintains high interest rates with no signs of decreasing. Basically, the FED’s goal is (employment + inflation). Employment seems to be slightly stable, but inflation is definitely not because, as you all know, goods being taxed will increase in price, and rising prices will lead to increased inflation —> making it hard to reduce interest rates. But this is still not the worst thing.... If high interest rates persist for a long time + high inflation + economic recession, then... boom, we will have a destructive combo = 'Stagflation'. (This explanation will be very long, so please find and read on your own!)
After a round, it seems the global economic picture is basically 'Dark', isn’t it? American stocks rising is simply a bounce in a downward trend. The traders know how to make us go from despair to hope. As for the 'shitcoin' sector, I also hope for an ALTSS but hoping does not mean blind trust. And remember, according to the 4-year cycle, this year is the last year of the rising cycle and BTC is showing signs of establishing its second peak on the monthly frame.
The world tourism part is enough, now we return to the economy of Vietnam and the VN88 bookmaker.
I believe Vietnam will face very, very, very, very difficult challenges. Geographically, we are close to China, but we earn the most money from America. Unfortunately, these two are currently at odds with each other. People often say 'selling distant relatives to buy nearby neighbors', but history has taught us not to let our guard down with China.
As for Vietnam being subjected to a 46% tax, believe me, many foreign companies investing in Vietnam will flee because profits won't cover taxes. And even if negotiations occur, there will surely be no return to 0%. Vietnam's average tax rate is around 15%, so I think it will hover somewhere around 20-30%. (20-30% will wipe out the people of Eastern Laos, oh America 🥹)
On top of that, the FED is keeping interest rates high —> the economy struggles to develop —> consumer spending decreases —> Vietnam's exports will also decrease. Now there’s an additional combo of increased taxes making product prices rise—who will we sell to?
In addition, the new factory of the world has been chosen to be located in India. In the past, Vietnam benefited from being close to China, the world's factory. Convenient maritime traffic made others want to jump in to earn some extra cash. Now the factory has moved, and Vietnam faces higher taxes. What reason will keep others from running over to sister India?
Next regarding the VN88 bookmaker, I must say that I feel it is very dangerous. Reading the previous part, VN88 should indeed decrease, but why is it rising close to the 1300 mark?
You all try opening the app to see how many stocks have returned to their old prices? It’s just a pullback; if it’s just a pullback, they could reach 2000, but returning to 1300 is nothing.
Moreover, Mr. Vượng is having a listing deal for Vinpearl, so he is pulling the indices to nice levels while selling shares. If he lists and the market drops drastically, who would dare to buy from him anymore?
In this VN88 game, the bloody experience shows that: when the bookmaker pulls the 'Vin' family, it’s better to run before getting hit on the head.
The above is basically how I view the market at the moment, of course, there are still many other issues such as armed conflicts, shootings here and there.... And it is entirely related to the global financial system. But I will save that for the next article.
And as usual, this is just my personal perspective, I write it for us to read and reference together. I do not intend to express or advise buying or selling any assets. My opinions could be completely wrong, okay! I don’t have any ties with Mr. Tập and Mr. Trâm, so I don't know what they are thinking =))
Read to reference, read to reflect, but don’t read and believe 100%.