The meme coin Pepe (PEPE) has recently seen sharp volatility that's alarming both analysts and investors. After a 100% surge over the past week, the price hit a psychological resistance and is now showing signs of exhaustion. Adding to the concerns is a massive 257% spike in whale transactions, which is often seen as a signal of a cycle top.
📉 PEPE Price Under Pressure: Reversal Signs and a Double-Top Pattern
PEPE is currently trading at $0.00001399, down 3.19% in the last 24 hours. This drop aligns with Bitcoin’s current weakness. If PEPE fails to break above the $0.000015 resistance, a deeper correction is likely.
Between May 6 and May 12, PEPE skyrocketed 100%, but has since moved sideways around $0.00001274, forming a double-top pattern—a classic bearish formation. If the price breaks below the neckline at $0.00001274 and closes a 4-hour candle beneath it, the pattern projects a 25% drop to $0.00001063.
🐋 Whales Selling Before the Crash? History Repeats
According to data from IntoTheBlock, on May 12, whale transactions over $1 million spiked to 720, precisely matching the local peak of $0.000015 for PEPE. Historical data from May, November, and December 2024 suggests this level of whale activity often signals the end of a bullish cycle. If whale transactions cross 800, it typically indicates profit-taking by large holders.
💥 Bitcoin Signals Trouble: Risk of Dropping Below $102K
Although Bitcoin is slightly up today (+1.15% at $103,814), it continues to struggle to break the $104K resistance. A drop below $102,000 could lead to a wider correction toward the $93,000–$102,600 zone.
Such a move would likely impact altcoins hard, especially high-volatility ones like PEPE. If Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase, the broader market could see significant losses and liquidations.
📊 RSI, MACD Flash Bearish Warnings
Key indicators are showing increased bearish signals:
🔹 The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling from overbought levels, indicating weakening momentum.
🔹 The MACD and signal lines have crossed bearishly, signaling rising downside pressure.
To invalidate this bearish setup, PEPE would need to break above $0.000015, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. In case of a bullish breakout, the next resistance target is $0.00001792.
📈 Binance Futures: Bullish Optimism on Thin Ice
Despite technical warning signs, traders remain extremely bullish. On Binance, 72% of users are holding long positions on PEPE, pushing the long/short ratio to 2.57—indicating a heated bullish bias.
Open Interest (OI) remains near all-time highs at $583 million, signaling strong trading activity but also a risk of large-scale liquidations if sentiment flips.
🧠 One-Minute Summary:
Pepe Coin’s price is in a danger zone. After a massive rally, it has formed a double-top pattern while whale transactions have surged 257%, hinting at a potential market top. A break below $0.00001274 could trigger a 25% drop. Technical indicators and on-chain data support a bearish scenario, even though retail optimism remains high.
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