Analysis of the fundamental reasons for Notcoin's growth (May 2025)
Key news and market backdrop
In early May 2025, the Notcoin (NOT) token demonstrated a sharp price increase after a prolonged decline of more than 90% from its peak. The key catalyst was the project's reboot in April 2025: the Notcoin team announced a departure from the outdated tap-to-earn model and the implementation of a new development strategy. The co-founders of the project stated directly at the Token2049 conference that the format of simple clicker games in Telegram was 'likely dead', thereby announcing Notcoin's transition to more complex mechanics and socially oriented gameplay. As part of this course, strategic elements, DeFi functionality (staking, farming), NFT items, and a referral program to attract new users were added to Notcoin 2.0. These news signaled to the market that the project was ready to overcome the decline and regain its audience.
At the same time, the overall market backdrop favored growth. In the spring of 2025, the cryptocurrency market returned to a bullish trend: Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark, and major altcoins (Ethereum, Dogecoin, etc.) began to rise, sparking discussions of a new alt season. Positive market sentiment and increased interest in the gaming token segment created a favorable environment for Notcoin's rally. Investors began to pay attention to the updated project precisely after May 10, 2025, when, amid these news and market optimism, the price of NOT began to rise rapidly. The wide media coverage also played an important role: industry media (such as Cointelegraph and RBC-Crypto) released materials about the relaunch of Notcoin, emphasizing the massive base of 30+ million users and radical changes in the project. Thus, the combination of internal news (new functionality, team statements) and external backdrop (growth of the entire crypto market) laid the foundation for Notcoin's price surge.
Listing on exchanges and token availability
As early as 2024, Notcoin secured its presence on major exchanges, which became one of the reasons for its current growth. Immediately after the token generation event (TGE) in April 2024, NOT was listed on leading crypto exchanges. According to RBC-Crypto, all major platforms, including Binance, OKX, and Bybit, announced the start of trading for NOT. In practice, the token quickly became available on exchanges such as OKX, MEXC, Gate.io, Bybit, and others. Listing on large platforms allowed hundreds of millions of potential investors to freely buy/sell NOT, instantly providing liquidity to the project and enhancing community trust. Additionally, the token is integrated into the official TON wallet (TON Space), meaning it is available directly within Telegram. This strategic partnership with the TON ecosystem simplified the storage and use of NOT for regular users of the messenger.
The listing effect was felt in two ways. First, the initial launch of NOT on exchanges in 2024 was accompanied by a surge in price – at its peak in June 2024, the token rose by ~350%, reaching around $0.024. Secondly, by early 2025, the broad presence on CEX provided basic liquidity: as soon as new positive news emerged, those willing to invest in Notcoin were able to enter positions without delays. Thus, the listings laid the foundation for the current growth. Additionally, expectations of new listings also play a role – for example, the token is not yet traded on Coinbase and Binance itself, so the market speculates that the release on the remaining top platforms could provide the next impulse. Overall, Notcoin's high availability on exchanges is already contributing to increased trading volume and accelerating the market's reaction to events surrounding the project.
Team actions and project development
The Notcoin team actively responded to last year's decline, laying the groundwork for the current growth. In early 2025, a restructuring was carried out: the project attracted new developers experienced in the Telegram and TON ecosystems. Strengthening the team allowed for faster updates in accordance with the roadmap. A key achievement is the launch of Notcoin 2.0 (Q2 2025) with new gameplay and features. The developers added competitive mechanics to the game (to increase engagement through competition among players), integrated GameFi/DeFi elements (token staking, yield farming, liquidity pools), and opened an in-game NFT marketplace. A referral program was also introduced to encourage users to invite friends. All these steps are aimed at transforming Notcoin from a simple 'clicker game' into a comprehensive ecosystem with social and financial elements. Experts noted that without such innovations, the format would have no future; the team quickly realized this and correctly changed its development course.
In addition to gameplay improvements, the team has taken steps regarding tokenomics. As early as 2024, after the distribution of in-game coins was completed, the developers strictly limited the supply: users were given about a month to exchange game points for tokens, after which all unclaimed tokens were burned. As a result, the current supply of NOT is controlled (the total issuance is limited to 10 billion, of which about 4.2 billion are in circulation). Deflationary measures, along with the launch of staking, create a token scarcity in the market, which has become one of the reasons for the price increase amid revived demand.
It is equally important that the team has established communication with the community and investors. After a long silence, the founders began to actively appear in the media: they gave a significant interview to Cointelegraph at Token2049, clarified the strategy, and acknowledged past mistakes. In social media, the project also 'came out of the shadows' – AMA sessions are held (for example, exclusive communication with the community on the WAGMI Hub platform), regular announcements in the official Telegram channel, and tweets. The transparency and openness of the team have helped partially restore trust among some of the audience that was previously disappointed during the stagnation. All these actions by the leadership – technological updates, improvements in token economics, and active PR – have created fundamental prerequisites for a new phase of growth for Notcoin.
Community activity
The Notcoin community remains one of the largest in the field, and its dynamics significantly affect the token's price. At its peak popularity in 2024, Notcoin attracted over 35 million users – an unprecedented base for a Web3 game. However, after the hype, a significant portion of players ceased to be active, and by early 2025, the monthly audience dropped to ~12 million. Despite this decline, Notcoin still ranks 3rd in community size among Telegram games, trailing only newer hits TapSwap and Hamster Kombat. The current active community comprises millions of users who have become the target audience for the new stage of the project.
The relaunch of Notcoin 2.0 revived part of the community. The addition of competitive elements returned motivation to the game, and referral rewards encouraged the core loyal fans to invite new participants. As a result, positive dynamics began to be observed in recent months: from the February low (~$0.0012), the price of NOT more than doubled by mid-May, and daily trading volumes reached several million dollars – a sign that some holders and new traders are actively trading the token again. Also, when the listing took place in 2024, about 10 million users expressed their readiness to withdraw their coins to exchanges. This fact indicates massive engagement: even if not everyone remained active, a huge number of people are familiar with Notcoin and hold tokens in their wallets.
There is a growth in discussions about Notcoin on social channels as the price rises. On forums and in the Telegram chat of the project, users share staking strategies, discuss new NFT collections, and compete in the game. Although some of the audience previously lost trust in the project during the sharp price drop, recent actions by the team (openness, fulfillment of promises, product improvements) help gradually restore positivity. Overall, the revival of community activity is a critical factor in the current growth. 'Word of mouth' and the viral effect on Telegram worked in favor of Notcoin early in the launch, and now the project is again leveraging the power of its vast user community to maintain the upward trend.
Partnerships and media events
For the fundamental value of Notcoin, strategic partnerships and resonant events are of great importance. A key step is integration with the official TON infrastructure: Notcoin became a partner of TON Space, the built-in crypto wallet of Telegram. This means that users can store and transfer NOT tokens directly in the messenger, which enhances convenience and audience reach. Such collaboration with TON developers makes Notcoin more reliable in the eyes of the community (the project is recognized at the ecosystem level) and facilitates the influx of new users from among the 1+ billion Telegram users. Furthermore, Notcoin plans to launch its own decentralized exchange (DEX) for TON tokens in Q3 2025 – likely in partnership with the TON ecosystem. This will strengthen the project's position in the DeFi arena and create new use cases for NOT.
Notcoin also does not operate in a vacuum – it collaborates with other projects. A bright example is the joint promotion with the DOGS token at the Token2049 conference (Dubai) in May 2025. On the final day of the event, the teams of Notcoin and DOGS staged a grand drone show featuring 1,500 glowing drones, setting a Guinness World Record. During the 15-minute performance, the drones formed the logos of TON, DOGS, and Notcoin in the sky, as well as the Telegram symbol, marking the achievement of 1 billion users of the messenger. This show, which gathered thousands of viewers, became a loud media event, demonstrating the merger of cryptocurrencies and mass culture. Thanks to it, the Notcoin brand received wide coverage in the press and social media, strengthening the project's image as one of the flagships of the TON community.
Moreover, Notcoin regularly appears in news reports. The fact that comments about it are made by figures such as Alexander Filatov, co-founder of the TON Foundation, confirms that the project is in the spotlight in the industry. Filatov characterized Notcoin as a pioneer that has proven the potential of Telegram mini-apps, which now faces the task of evolving and maintaining relevance. The emergence of such assessments from industry leaders enhances Notcoin's status. Major industry media (Cointelegraph, BeinCrypto, RBC-Crypto, etc.) have released reviews analyzing the roadmap and prospects for Notcoin, calling it the 'legend of Telegram Mini Apps' with a chance for revival. All these partnerships, collaborations, and informational reasons create a positive news backdrop around Notcoin. They not only attract new investors but also increase the confidence of long-term holders that the project is supported by influential players and the community.
Long-term prospects: factors and scenarios
The question on the agenda is how sustainable the current growth of Notcoin is and whether it can continue in the long term. So far, the rally is supported by specific events, but maintaining the upward trend will depend on a number of key factors. Below are the main conditions that determine the duration of NOT's growth:
Execution of the roadmap. The project has ambitious plans for 2025-2026: the launch of Notcoin 2.0 (already implemented), the release of a TON-oriented DEX (Q3 2025), the implementation of AR gameplay (Q4 2025), and the creation of cross-chain bridges to other networks (Q1 2026). Successful and timely implementation of these technologies is critical for building trust. If the team consistently fulfills its promises and improves the product – this will be a solid foundation for further price growth.
Growth of the user base and engagement. It is necessary for the number of active players to rise again after the rebranding. Metrics such as MAU (monthly active users) and audience retention will show whether Notcoin has managed to regain at least some of the 35 million past players and attract new ones. If millions of users join the project again, the demand for NOT tokens for in-game actions will increase, supporting demand. Otherwise, if stagnation continues at the current ~12 million or further outflow occurs, it will be difficult for growth to continue sustainably.
The development of the TON ecosystem and Telegram's policy. Notcoin does not exist in isolation – its success is closely linked to the overall dynamics of the TON ecosystem and support from the Telegram platform. Significant growth of the ecosystem is expected in the future (TON actively attracts DeFi developers, new games, social networks, etc.). If TON becomes one of the leading blockchain networks, the inflow of new users into Telegram/Web3 will inevitably lead some of them to Notcoin. On the other hand, changes in Telegram's policy regarding mini-apps could significantly impact the project. For example, tightening rules or restrictions for crypto games in Telegram could slow the growth of the user base regardless of the team's efforts. Thus, a favorable external environment – the expansion of TON and Telegram's loyalty to such games – is an important factor for Notcoin's longevity.
Competition in the GameFi Telegram segment. The niche of games in Telegram, especially simple P2E clickers, became very competitive in 2025. Direct competitors of Notcoin – projects TapSwap and Hamster Kombat – have managed to attract even more users (over 70 million each) and are implementing their own innovations. For example, Hamster Kombat launched a separate blockchain, Hamster Network, and an acceleration program for game developers. Although its token also experienced a decline, the emergence of such strong players means Notcoin is competing for limited audience attention. The further price trajectory of NOT largely depends on its successes relative to competitors: will Notcoin be able to offer a unique experience and regain leadership, or will new games ultimately draw the audience away? The market will value the project higher if it strengthens its user share despite the competition.
Community and investor trust. The sustainability of growth is defined not only by technology but also by sentiment. It is important for the team to regain the trust of those who were disappointed last year. Transparent fulfillment of promises (for example, burning unclaimed tokens, timely release of updates) has already partially improved the project's reputation. If Notcoin continues to meet expectations, long-term holders will not rush to sell at every price spike, which will reduce supply pressure. Additionally, the appearance of institutional investors or large partners (for example, support from the TON Foundation, investment funds) will significantly increase the chances of long-term success. Conversely, at the slightest doubt in the team or with further delays, sentiment will quickly turn negative, and many will prefer to lock in profits, interrupting growth.
Considering the above factors, several likely scenarios for the future development of Notcoin can be envisioned:
Optimistic scenario: The project successfully evolves into a fully-fledged Web3 gaming platform, implementing the concept of 'Netflix for games'. Notcoin attracts third-party developers who release new games on its infrastructure, utilizing $NOT for in-game transactions and rewards. Dozens of mini-games emerge in the ecosystem, and Notcoin itself transforms from a single game into the center of GameFi activity on Telegram. At the same time, the TON network experiences a boom, massively attracting Web2 users to Web3, many of whom begin their introduction to crypto games through Notcoin. In this scenario, the active audience of NOT grows again, approaching past records, stimulating a constant demand for the token. Experts note that under such circumstances, the price of NOT may not only return to previous highs but also significantly exceed them. Some forecasts allow for multiple increases in value in 2025 if the project becomes an integral part of the rapidly developing TON ecosystem. In other words, the long-term uptrend will continue: the rate will steadily update local peaks, supported by real user growth and utility of the token.
Neutral scenario: Notcoin achieves partial success – the relaunch brings some increase in activity, but the project does not emerge as an undisputed leader. The new game mechanics retain the core fanbase and attract a certain number of new users; however, the audience stabilizes at a level significantly below historical highs (for example, in the tens of millions, rather than hundreds). The team implements the roadmap but without breakthroughs: DEX and AR features are functional, though they did not become 'killer features' in the market. Overall, the project remains one of several players in the segment, sharing the market with TapSwap, Hamster, and others. Under these conditions, the price of NOT may plateau after an initial surge. Fluctuations in the rate are possible within ranges determined by the overall sentiment in the crypto market, but without sustainable exponential growth. For instance, the token may trade sideways or slowly increase at rates below the market unless there are significant new developments. The current market capitalization (~$25 million) in this scenario reflects the project's actual value and will remain relatively stable until Notcoin identifies new growth points. In other words, the project will not disappear and will maintain its achieved position (thanks to a loyal community and completed updates), but significant token appreciation in the short term is unlikely unless new drivers emerge.
Negative scenario: The growth momentum does not develop and gradually fades. This could happen if the announced innovations do not lead to a significant increase in engagement – for example, players may try Notcoin 2.0 out of curiosity, but soon activity declines again. There is a high risk that without a constant influx of new users, the play-to-earn economy will become unprofitable again. Competitors also apply pressure: the emergence of more interesting games in Telegram (especially skill-based games like TapSwap) may completely distract the audience. In the worst case, Notcoin may fail to restore trust – users who have experienced a 90%+ drop may rush to lock in profits at the first signs of weakness in the trend. Mass sales will lead to a price drop. Some analysts warn that if Notcoin fails to attract developers and expand its gaming ecosystem, the token could drop down to levels around ~$0.01 (again losing a significant portion of its value). There are precedents: the competitor Hamster Kombat, even after launching a new season of the game and its own blockchain, lost the overwhelming majority of its audience – monthly activity fell from 300 million to 5.6 million in just six months. This shows that the hype around such projects can quickly fade. In the negative scenario, the price of NOT returns to a downward trend: first, the May surge is neutralized, and then new lows are possible, especially if the overall market deteriorates. An additional risk is unforeseen external factors: changes in Telegram's policy or regulatory restrictions could sharply limit Notcoin's opportunities, exacerbating the decline.
Conclusion: The current growth of Notcoin is driven by real fundamental shifts – improved product, team activation, partnerships, and community interest amid a market upturn. In the short term, the project has energy reserves, reinforced by news and expectations. However, to sustain the upward trend in the long term, Notcoin must confirm its revival with concrete results: retain and grow its audience, ensure continuous use of the token within the ecosystem, and continue innovations that outpace competitors. If the project can prove its value as a full-fledged gaming ecosystem (rather than a one-off 'clicker'), then the current growth could transform into a prolonged ascent. Otherwise, there is a high likelihood of a correction after the hype wave subsides. Investors should closely monitor the progress of the roadmap and user engagement metrics – these will be indicators of whether the surge in Notcoin will evolve into sustainable growth or remain a brief episode in the project's history.