February CPI inflation is expected at 2.9% YoY, slightly lower than January’s 3.0%.
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) may drop to 3.2% from 3.3%.
The Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rate cuts will depend heavily on this data.
Inflation numbers will directly influence crypto, stocks, and the US dollar.
What to Expect from the CPI Report
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this Wednesday.
Analysts are expecting a slight cooling in inflation, but uncertainty still looms.
Forecasts:
Headline CPI (YoY): 2.9%
Core CPI (YoY): 3.2%
Both headline and core inflation are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month.
If housing and goods prices ease further, it could support the broader disinflation trend.
How This Affects the Fed’s Next Move
The Federal Reserve has taken a cautious stance. Jerome Powell recently said that although the economy is “solid,” inflation still needs to come down further before the Fed considers easing.
Market Scenarios:
If CPI is lower than expected (below 2.9%) → Markets may price in earlier rate cuts, US dollar weakens, and risk assets (stocks, crypto) may rally.
If CPI is higher than expected (above 3.0%) → Fed may hold off on cuts, US dollar strengthens, and markets may pull back.
Currently, markets are pricing in around 85 basis points of cuts in 2025 — but this can quickly change based on inflation data.
Trump’s Trade Policies: A Wild Card
Even if inflation cools, former President Trump’s tariff-driven trade policies may reignite price pressures.
New tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico could raise import costs and disrupt supply chains — adding inflationary risk back into the equation.
Crypto Market Outlook
Crypto remains in a holding pattern as traders await the inflation data.
Bitcoin: $82,185 (+0.57%)
Ethereum: $1,889 (-1.75%)
Solana, Cardano: Slight declines
Notably, digital asset investment products saw $876 million in outflows last week — the fourth consecutive week of outflows.
Investor Mood:
Lower CPI → Bullish for crypto (rate cuts more likely)
Higher CPI → Bearish (strong dollar, restrictive Fed stance)
Final Thoughts:
This CPI report is a key trigger for what comes next — for the Fed, the dollar, and all major asset classes.
Even if inflation appears to be easing, trade tensions and economic uncertainty mean we’re not out of the woods yet.
Bottom Line:
Get ready for volatility. The markets — especially crypto — are about to
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