Bitcoin has entered a crucial market stage with strong upward movement now confirmed above $109400.
Analysts say a drop below $79000 may break the trend so traders are watching this price closely.
If price stalls or reverses near current levels this pattern may lead to a sharp fall or distribution.
BTC has officially entered the critical "Stage 2.4: Trend Continuation" phase following a confirmed weekly close above $109.4 K. Market observers now await the outcome as historical trend cycles suggest an imminent shift. Validation hinges on two key metrics: weekly price action and structural timing benchmarks.
Source: X
The current phase marks a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s market structure, according to analyst Gert van Lagen. The update, published May 13, 2025, via TradingView, outlines BTC's movement through established cycle phases including accumulation, distribution, and potential re-distribution. With a weekly close above $109,400 now confirmed, attention turns to whether bullish momentum can be sustained.
Pre-tension is reportedly being released, indicating the possibility of a major price action event. Meanwhile, invalidation would require a weekly close below $79,000 or an extended timeline surpassing the prior re-accumulation duration.
From Accumulation to Distribution: A Defined Cycle
The structure follows a classical multi-stage schematic. It began with a sharp drop followed by accumulation, fast price moves, and brief pauses to build pre-tension. These phases serve as precursors to broader moves that define overall trends. BTC’s journey began with the 1.1 Accumulation Phase, marked by flat trading and low volatility.
This was succeeded by a fast price breakout (1.2), a pre-tension build (1.3), and the first trend continuation (1.4). By early 2024, Bitcoin entered a 2.1 (Re)-Accumulation range, confirming strength with a second fast move (2.2) and further trend continuation (2.4).
Each milestone followed technical validation before transitioning to the next. The current stage signals the release of long-standing pre-tension from phase 2.3. This pattern aligns closely with historical bullish formations, especially during past cycles that preceded sharp upward spikes.
Investor focus is now on whether Bitcoin can maintain its trend and avoid invalidation triggers, namely the sub-$79K close or delayed progression. Timing between phases is especially critical in assessing cycle health and forward momentum.
Re-Distribution Threat Looms Ahead
While Bitcoin surges through Stage 2.4, charts indicate a looming distribution phase. The key concern: Could this rally mark the peak before a downturn? The diagram identifies 3.1 as the beginning of the Distribution Phase. A steep price rise leads into tight consolidation, mimicking classic topping formations. If historical patterns hold, a loss of uptrend strength (3.3) typically follows, signaling the build-up of risk.
After the next potential peak, the 3.4 phase suggests a possible continuation before distribution accelerates. The re-distribution stage (4.1) is flagged as the final checkpoint before a major downward move.
Analyst Gert van Lagen notes that if the 4.1 phase is confirmed, Bitcoin could head toward a full-blown recession-style price drop. The scenario includes a fast price move downward, echoing past cycle conclusions. Market participants must weigh whether the current bullish extension is sustainable—or merely a prelude to broader correction.
