US April CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year, probability of Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June exceeds 80%
Data released by the US Labor Department on the 13th shows that in April this year, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year. The data indicates that after excluding the volatile prices of food and energy, the core CPI in the US rose 2.8% year-on-year in April, which is still far above the Fed's long-term target of 2%.
Many analysts believe that the US government's tariff policy may push up inflation levels in the coming months, thereby affecting the Fed's monetary policy path. Goldman Sachs expects that the US tariff policy will gradually push up prices of goods such as clothing, furniture, and communication equipment, thereby increasing domestic price levels in the US. Some institutions predict that the transmission effect of tariff policies on price increases may become apparent in June and July of this year. Currently, market expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed within this year have significantly cooled. The latest data from the CME's "FedWatch Tool" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June exceeds 80%, while the probability of a rate cut in July has fallen to less than 40%. (@CCTV Finance)
