Blob bulls need to buckle up—saturation (read: fees) aren't likely coming for another ~year+.

Rationale:

→ It took ~7 months to saturate the 3 blob/block

→ We just double blobspace (6 blob/block are ~free)

→ There is an aggressive push for Fusaka upgrade by EOY, which will take the blobs from 6 to ~48

If that happens, we can make some projections:

i.) It took 7 months to saturate 3 blobs

ii.) Even with accelerating saturation for the next 3 blobs, that timeline puts us ~at Fusaka implementation which will ~8x the amount of free blobs.

iii.) The time it will take to saturate that new space, even accelerated, is ~year.

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Below shows the growth of blobs, time to saturate with both an aggressive and conservative guess of how long it will take to saturate the expanded space.

The likely outcome is that it will land somewhere in the middle of projections.

The case for aggressive timelines being hit:

• EIP-7623 in Pectra will slow rollups from switching over to calldata when blob pricing spikes

• Regulatory environment loosening and adoption is accelerating

• Base, and OP broadly, has plans for continued Mgas/s throughput week over week

The case for conservative timelines being hit:

• Solana is not giving way and ~all new metas are popping off there

• Higher performance chains launching that leverage Ethereum but don't utilize blobs (MegaETH is here)

• Chains are getting more and more efficient at avoiding blob saturation/costs. Blob sharing, smart/delayed posting, etc.

• altDA providers are being normalized and offer higher capacity/lower median user fees

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Everyone knows my position at this point; DA is something with little network effects on the long run and I think it's prudent Ethereum prioritize execution scaling.

I did this to try and determine how long it would take to see Ethereum generate meaningful fees from DA.

Depending on Fusaka launch, that could be late 2026.