The adjustment of tariffs between China and the United States has drawn widespread attention from the market, with traditional safe-haven assets and cryptocurrencies experiencing undercurrents.
Last weekend, the two countries reached a significant agreement to temporarily lower tariffs on certain goods, suggesting that the prolonged 'trade war' may be approaching a turning point.
According to QCP Capital, the United States will reduce tariffs on most goods imported from China from 145% to 30%, while China will lower tariffs on goods imported from the United States from 125% to 10%. This tariff reduction has significantly boosted market risk appetite, with widespread expectations of a noticeable rebound in cross-border trade and capital flows between China and the United States.
It is noteworthy that gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, plummeted nearly 3% following the announcement, although the loss subsequently narrowed. This trend has prompted a resurgence in volatility trading across various asset classes.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) initially dropped after the tariff news was released but have since stabilized at around $103,000 and $2,400, respectively. However, beneath the surface, signs of capital rotation are emerging. Bitcoin's market dominance has fallen below 63%, while other cryptocurrencies, especially Ethereum, are beginning to outperform Bitcoin overall.
Bitcoin is facing a tug-of-war between its 'digital gold' safe-haven attributes and its risk asset characteristics, creating a contradictory situation that makes its trend difficult to clarify. Moreover, as the macro environment shifts from protectionism to trade optimism, Bitcoin may maintain a range-bound fluctuation.
In contrast, broader market trends, such as increased long-term investments, are driving demand for long-dated options and may steepen the volatility curve, thereby affecting the cryptocurrency options market.
In comparison, the inflow of funds into Ethereum options remains neutral, with open interest leaning towards put options, indicating that this breakout is not driven by excessive speculation. The current market trend breaking above $2,400 aligns with the expected rollout timing of the Pectra upgrade.
Therefore, some believe that trading activity in longer-term options is beginning to resurface, which may signal that Ethereum is gradually becoming the next major allocation choice in the market.
Do you think the easing of tariffs between China and the United States will have a significant impact on Bitcoin and Ethereum? Moving forward, do you prefer Bitcoin or the altcoin market led by Ethereum?
