#CryptoCPIWatch
US Inflation Report: What to Watch
1. CPI Expectations
Headline CPI: Expected at 2.9% YoY, down from 3.0%
Core CPI: Forecasted at 3.2%, slightly easing from 3.3%
Monthly: Both headline and core CPI projected at +0.3% MoM
> First dual drop in CPI since July 2024.
---
2. Federal Reserve Impact
Fed waiting for further inflation cooling before rate cuts
Markets priced in 85bps of cuts for 2025
> Scenarios:
CPI below 2.9% → Rate cuts likely, USD weakens, crypto/stocks rally
CPI above 3.0% → Fed stays hawkish, USD strengthens, risk assets fall
---
3. Trump’s Trade Tariffs – A New Risk
Tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico may raise import costs
Could reignite inflation, limiting Fed flexibility
---
4. Crypto Market Reaction
Bitcoin: $82,185 (+0.57%)
Ethereum: $1,889 (-1.75%)
Altcoins: XRP +1.6%, DOGE +2.5%, others slightly down
> Crypto eyes CPI for rate cut signals
Bullish if CPI cools → Rate cuts more likely
Bearish if CPI stays high → Fed delays cuts
---
5. Volatility Ahead
CoinShares reports $876M in outflows
Inflation + trade risks = high uncertainty for crypto, USD, stocks
> Next Event: CPI Report on Wednesday, 12:30 GMT
