Why April’s CPI Might Surprise Markets and Boost Stocks ⁉️
The market expects April’s #CPI to stay flat at 2.4% year-over-year, same as March. But since only food prices (13.7% of CPI) are rising among the four main CPI components, inflation could come in lower than expected. This might push the Fed to restart rate cuts in June, which could lift U.S. stocks while weakening the dollar and Treasury yields.
I think this take makes sense—lower-than-expected inflation could definitely signal rate cuts, which markets usually love for stocks. But I’m skeptical about how predictable the Fed’s moves are; they’ve been cagey lately. Also, if food’s the only thing driving CPI up, global supply issues or energy costs could still throw a curveball. Still, the stock market rally idea feels plausible if the data lands soft.
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