In the past 48 hours, the Bitcoin market has witnessed significant volatility. After dropping below the 101,000 USD threshold, BTC has slightly recovered and is currently trading around 102,300 USD. However, signs indicate that bullish momentum is weakening, as Bitcoin has not been able to maintain above the recent peak of 105,787 USD.
Current price movement of Bitcoin: Weakening momentum
Observing on the 4-hour timeframe, BTC price is still maintaining above the two EMA moving averages 20 and 50 – at 102,822 USD and 100,890 USD respectively – indicating that buyers are still in control in the short term. However, the RSI has dropped to 49 and formed a lower peak, reflecting diminishing buying pressure as the price has not been able to break out strongly.
On the daily chart, BTC has tested and been rejected twice at the key resistance zone of 105,000 USD – this price zone has previously acted as a "ceiling" during past rallies. The inability to break through this area further increases selling pressure in the absence of new catalysts. Additionally, the current price still lies below the Fibonacci extension level 1.0 at 109,396 USD, indicating that upward momentum may face limits.
Why is the Bitcoin price decreasing in the short term?
A closer observation on the 30-minute timeframe shows that volatility is increasing with significant swings in the range of 101,000 to 103,000 USD. The triangle structure is forming, reflecting the struggle between buyers and sellers. The RSI indicator on this timeframe has also dropped below 50, while the MACD remains in the negative zone and has not given a clear reversal signal.
This short-term hesitation coincides with signs of exhaustion in the bullish trend. The 4-hour RSI peaked on May 10 and is gradually declining, despite prices still attempting to set new local highs – a sign of divergence. Additionally, on the 30-minute trend chart, a symmetrical triangle is forming with the upper edge as resistance at 104,548 USD and the lower edge as support at 101,035 USD. This pattern is expected to produce a breakout or breakdown around May 14.
If Bitcoin cannot decisively surpass the 104,000–105,000 USD range with high trading volume, the risk of revisiting the support zone of 101,000 USD or further down to 98,000–100,000 USD is quite high.
Bitcoin price scenario until May 14: Support and resistance zones to monitor
Nearest support zone: 101,000 USD
Strong support zone: 98,000–100,000 USD (strengthened by EMA and horizontal structure)
Important resistance zone: 104,500 USD – if broken, it may open the possibility of re-testing 105,700 and further 107,000 USD
In the long term, the weekly Fibonacci chart shows that BTC is still maintaining above the 0.618 retracement level around 96,727 USD – this is a positive signal for the macro trend. However, the strong resistance at 109,396 USD remains a significant barrier to conquer in order to establish a long-term upward trend.
Summary: The market is in a state of hesitation
With the combination of conflicting technical signals – hesitant RSI, MACD not confirming a bullish trend, along with continuous rejection at the important resistance zone – traders should maintain a cautious mindset. Bitcoin price volatility is likely to increase in the coming days, especially as BTC approaches the breakout threshold of the triangle on May 14.
BTC Forecast Table
