$BTC

Market Analysis: These past few days, I've been unable to go live due to a sore throat, and my ability to express myself in writing is quite limited. Currently, the market is experiencing wide fluctuations, which is indeed difficult for small retail investors with limited capital. A while ago, I mentioned that shorting was hard; now I think we’ve entered a phase where going long is also difficult.

When trading, if you find yourself confused in a small price range and unable to understand what’s happening, don’t get entangled in that small range. Step back and look at the bigger picture, clear your mind, calm down, and place yourself in a larger time frame (see Chart 4). You’ll know what to do. Currently, the BTC central pivot around 102500 has been broken. Whether it’s a true break or a false break will be revealed tonight. Generally, I would plan my trading strategy based on the assumption of a true break. At least as of now, my short position has already made a profit of 2WU since the day before yesterday. I think it’s very cost-effective to use that profit to take a relatively longer short position.

Think with first principles and dig deep into the essence of the problem.

What the hell is going on with the market right now?

Ask yourself this question. I believe the answer deep down in your heart is often correct. However, the prerequisite is that you need to have a certain level of trading literacy. It’s not always the case that if the market falls, it must rise, or if it rises, it must fall. There are only a few rules governing everything. Looking beyond the phenomena to see the essence, what kind of behavior is the market exhibiting here?

Here’s my viewpoint:

Currently, the market is fairly clear. BTC has already hit a peak at 104300. However, in such major market movements, it’s common to see a spike to clear the high short positions (around 104000), followed by a rapid drop. It’s very obvious; this is basically textbook behavior. Many people are likely trying to long at this point, but I advise against that.$BTC #TradeLessons