In recent days, the market sentiment has flipped as quickly as a tornado, switching from extreme pessimism to collective optimism in less than a week, going from 'bearish' to 'bullish'. But if you think about it carefully, what news is truly driving this wave of market action?

The China-U.S. talks have collapsed, tariffs have increased, and Trump is still jumping around, all of which are negative news. So why is ETH rising? Is it because everyone expects a reconciliation? Or did the market rally only after the results were announced? In fact, neither is true. This is called information arbitrage—those who are truly capable have already positioned themselves before the news comes out, so by the time we see the news, it’s basically 'secondhand' information.

So don’t trust news-driven trading too much. The news you see is either delayed or has been packaged. Today, when negotiations say they have reached an agreement, BTC not only didn’t continue to rise, but instead surged then fell back, which is a typical case of 'good news is priced in'.

Furthermore, those who were shouting about no interest rate cuts in June, tariff impacts, and liquidity crises a week ago were actually just the backdrop used by the manipulators to harvest profits. They create panic, force you to cut losses, then start a massive rally, and finally add a knife twist with 'we actually reached an agreement'. Isn’t that frustrating? But the problem is, we have seen this operation too many times, yet many people still believe the news and ignore the logic.

Remember one thing: do not trade on emotions, and even more so, do not guess on news to speculate.

When will the market rise? When will it stop? It’s not about 'who said what today', but rather about looking at the trading volume. Volume is real; when funds come in, volume rises, and when funds withdraw, volume shrinks. The most reliable indicator is not the K-line patterns, nor the news headlines, but whether there are people in the market willing to take over.

So, look less at 'XX has reached an agreement', and pay more attention to 'on-chain trading volume'. This trick is the real treasure that can help you avoid the manipulator’s tricks and survive longer.