Bitcoin surges past 100,000, is a new high just around the corner?
Institutions buying up overnight, UK-US agreements helping out, how high can this wave go?
Watching the Bitcoin price break through the $100,000 barrier, retail investors are still hesitating whether to chase the rise, while Wall Street institutions have quietly ramped up their positions to historical highs. This market wave isn’t merely driven by market sentiment—the New Hampshire government leading the way in buying Bitcoin, Coinbase's exorbitant acquisition of an exchange, and the Trump government suddenly being friendly towards cryptocurrency, these three blows directly sent Bitcoin to $100,000. But don’t rush to celebrate; the $970 million liquidation orders and the Fed's interest rate signals are lurking, waiting to harvest retail investors...
1. The direct push that broke 100,000: Policy loosening + Institutional frenzy
This Bitcoin surge was ignited by the UK-US tariff agreement. The real drama lies in policy documents and institutional holdings—a bill passed in New Hampshire allowing the government to buy Bitcoin as reserves is essentially an 'official certification' for cryptocurrency. Coinbase’s $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit exchange clearly aims to monopolize the derivatives market. Even more aggressive are companies like MicroStrategy, which are directly using $2 billion in cash to keep buying, accumulating 1,895 Bitcoins just in April, shrinking the circulating supply.
Institutions are calculating carefully: As USD credit is shaken by trade wars and debt issues, Bitcoin becomes the best hedge. Standard Chartered Bank data shows that in the last three weeks, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $5.3 billion, directly pushing prices past the ceiling. But don’t be misled by the current rise; last year when Tesla suddenly sold 75% of its holdings, causing a 15% drop in one day, that tragedy could repeat itself any day.
2. Undercurrents in the capital market: Retail investors being squeezed out, whales controlling the market
The current Bitcoin market is no longer the wild west of previous years. The top ten institutions hold 12% of the circulating supply; these whales could cause a tsunami with just a sneeze. Strategy holds 550,000 Bitcoins, worth $57 billion, more than the foreign exchange reserves of some small countries. They play a long-term accumulation strategy, turning the market into one where 'too many monks and too little porridge'.
Even scarier is the derivatives market—current leverage ratios have soared to 0.35, meaning a 5% price fluctuation could trigger a chain liquidation. Last week when Bitcoin dropped from $103,000 to $93,000, the scene of $800 million evaporating was enough to make retail investors who chased highs feel anxious. And those analysts shouting '200,000 is not a dream' may have already opened short positions to hedge against risks...
3. The minefield on New High Road: Regulatory flip-flops + Geopolitical crises
Don’t be fooled by Bitcoin’s current glory; the sword of Damocles of regulation always hangs overhead. If the SEC suddenly tightens ETF approvals, or if a state government backtracks on Bitcoin investments, it could trigger a sell-off in an instant. Not to mention black swan events like the escalation of border conflicts between India and Pakistan—last year's 30% crash during the Russia-Ukraine war could easily repeat itself.
The Federal Reserve's stance is also crucial. The market generally predicts no interest rate cuts in June, and a strong dollar will directly suppress Bitcoin's gains. However, if inflation data suddenly worsens and the Fed is forced to raise rates, those highly leveraged long positions may not hold for more than three hours. Even Bitcoin's biggest bull, Trenchev, admits that to truly break the previous high of $109,350, it depends on whether Trump's trade policy can stabilize the market.
4. The script for the next two months: Either surge to 170,000 or drop back to 70,000
CryptoQuant provides three scenarios, vividly showcasing Bitcoin's madness and fragility—under the most optimistic scenario, it could surge to $175,000, while the worst-case could plunge to the $70,000 mark. Currently, the on-chain momentum ratio is at a critical point of 0.8, just like a roller coaster reaching its peak; the next moment could either be a dive or continued ascent, depending on how institutions operate.
In the short term, $100,000 has already formed a psychological support level. But to replicate the kind of one-sided surge seen in 2021, three conditions must be met: Trump must secure re-election to stabilize policies, continued net inflow of spot ETFs, and global central banks must collectively ease. If any of these links falter, Bitcoin will oscillate repeatedly within the $70,000 to $109,000 range. Those institutions shouting '200,000 by the end of the year' are all holding stop-loss orders themselves...
Now the question is: when Bitcoin becomes a playground for institutions, should retail investors join in or retreat quickly? Watching Coinbase’s stock price surge 6% alongside Bitcoin’s rise, and recalling last year's LUNA crash, the answer might only be known to your wallet. After all, in this market, euphoria and collapse are often just a candlestick apart—do you dare to get on board? Also, I recommend a top-tier meme coin, Conanip is Trump's Dogecoin; if the market breaks new highs strongly, Conan will also have significant operational space, guys can keep an eye on it.
