Tonight's CPI "Grand Finale": A Key Factor Influencing the Market
The main event is here! On the evening of May 13, Beijing time, the U.S. April CPI data will be unveiled. If the data meets or falls below expectations, the story of "declining inflation" can continue, and risk assets are likely to see another wave of increases; however, if core inflation remains stubborn, the Federal Reserve's subsequent policies will become a "mystery," and the market is bound to experience severe fluctuations.
Overall CPI: The market predicts a 0.3% month-on-month increase in the April CPI, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, further declining from March's 3.5%. Actual data shows that the April CPI increased by 3.4% year-on-year, and core CPI rose by 3.6%, both in line with expectations. This result indicates that inflationary pressure continues to ease, but still exceeds the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Core CPI: Excluding food and energy, the year-on-year increase in core CPI has dropped to 3.6%, the lowest level since May 2021, indicating a structural cooling trend in inflation. On a month-on-month basis, core CPI increased by 0.3%, slightly below the previous value of 0.4%, in line with market expectations.
