Brothers in the crypto circle, take note! Tonight, the U.S. April CPI data will be unveiled, and this is a key hit that will determine Bitcoin's trend.
Looking at the current situation, Bitcoin is swaying between 98,000 and 102,000 like a drunken state. Don't panic just because it dropped from 101,000 to 98,000. The main force has cashed out 120 million dollars at high positions in the last three days! Keep a close eye on the data from the three major exchanges, with large orders over 2 million dollars appearing frequently. The selling pressure is already heavy; the positive news from the previous two days attracted large buyers, but selling orders surged, so a short-term pullback is normal.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart is steadily resting on the blue trend line, with the four-hour chart fluctuating in the 99,000 - 101,000 range. After spiking to 101,800 last night, it has now dropped for three consecutive days, breaking below the 99,000 support. However, there is a dense accumulation of chips at 98,500; if it holds, there is a chance to surge to 101,500.
Key point! The CPI data tonight at 8:30 will directly impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations. If it's lower than expected, the rate cut will gain momentum, and Bitcoin may surge above 101,000, even challenging 110,000. Institutional buying + ETF capital inflow makes the probability of dropping below 98,000 low. If the CPI rebounds and the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin may seek support at 95,000 - 96,000. But don't worry, MicroStrategy holds a 18 billion dollar capital increase quota; long-term holders are stable, with a maximum fluctuation range of 90,000 - 105,000.
Looking at altcoins, Ethereum faced resistance at 2400, with the daily chart showing two lightning rods, and the four-hour chart supporting around 2200. Falling below 2100 is risky. Other altcoins generally have a 15% - 25% downside potential; wait for Ethereum to stabilize before entering.
In the current market, there is pressure at 101,500 above and support at 98,500 below. The sharp drop on Monday was due to the Federal Reserve hinting at a 89.9% probability of not cutting rates in June, which the market has already digested. Tonight's CPI, regardless of the outcome, will finalize the situation; Bitcoin is solid at 98,000, with a strong floor at 97,500. The Federal Reserve's rate cut play is not over, so feel free to act!
This market changes every day; you need to seize the right moment to act. If you still feel too confused, you can follow Brother K, who usually shares some cutting-edge information and practical strategies. You're welcome to discuss anytime and let's seize the big opportunities together!
#CPI数据来袭