#CPI数据来袭

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the consumer price index (CPI) data for April on May 13, 2025, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time (8:30 PM Taipei Time on May 13).

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📊 Market Expectations Overview

• Monthly growth forecast: April CPI is expected to rise by 0.2%, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to rise by 0.3%, up from 0.1% in March. 

• Yearly growth forecast: The CPI annual growth rate is expected to remain at 2.4%, while the core CPI annual growth rate is expected to be 2.8%. 

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💥 Key Driving Factors

• Tariff Impact: Since February, the U.S. has imposed a 20% tariff on imports from China, which was raised to 30% in April, and has begun to affect prices, especially in categories reliant on Chinese imports, such as household goods. 

• Changes in Corporate Behavior: Some companies have responded to the tariff increases by procuring goods such as automobiles earlier, leading to a short-term increase in demand and further pushing up prices.

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🏦 Federal Reserve Policy Outlook

Despite recent inflation data showing an upward trend, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged until it confirms that the inflationary pressures caused by tariffs have peaked, possibly around August.

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🔮 Market Impact and Outlook

• Short-term inflation expectations rise: The CPI swap market shows that inflation expectations for the next 12 months have risen from 2.8% in February to 3.6%, the highest level since 2022. 

• Corporate expectations adjustment: According to a survey by the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, business leaders expect the CPI annual growth rate over the next 12 months to reach 3.9%, up from 3.2% in the first quarter, reflecting concerns about the persistence of inflation. 

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⏰ Next Steps

With the release of the April CPI data, the market will closely monitor its potential impacts on Federal Reserve policy, financial market trends, and the cryptocurrency market. Particularly in the context of tariff policies and changes in corporate behavior, inflation trends will become the focal point of market attention.