News: Three fires directly burn through the bear's coffin lid
The cooling of China-U.S. tariffs ignites a funding frenzy
This morning, the China-U.S. joint statement gave the market a dose of reassurance, with both sides suspending 24% of the tariffs. Global capital instantly switched to 'risk on' mode. While Bitcoin remains steady above $100,000, Ethereum is clearly more attractive.
On-chain data shows that whale addresses went on a shopping spree for ETH early this morning, combined with BlackRock's BUIDL fund heavily investing $2.7 billion in the Ethereum ecosystem, clearly indicating that traditional institutions want to leverage this wave of good news to drive prices up.
The SEC's policy shift gives ETH a get-out-of-jail-free card
Insider information from the dogs has gone crazy: The new SEC chairman publicly expresses support for innovation, and the custody rules for Ethereum spot ETFs may be relaxed, even self-custody may have a chance for exemption. Compared to the recent slowdown in net inflows for Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum ETFs have seen outflows in the short term, but the policy expectations are the real bomb—when Bitcoin's spot ETF was approved, it was first smashed and then surged; history may repeat itself.
On-chain data exposes the main force's bottom card
Watching on-chain, the turnover rate of ETH in the $1800-$2500 range has surged, with 1.3 million tokens washed out, leaving only 1 million tokens to protect the market. What does this mean? The dogs are hard eating bloody tokens, directly raising the cost zone above $2400; it’s impossible to offload without a 30% increase. Moreover, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has been hovering around 0.019 for half a month, and the weekly MACD is about to golden cross; not pushing up from this position is simply against human nature.
Technical aspect: The hourly chart is clear; a pullback is just giving away money
• The four-hour chart is the market's executioner
ETH has recently played a standard 'false breakdown, real surge': first, it dipped to $2400 creating panic, then violently surged through the strong resistance at $2500. Now the four-hour EMA30 moving average (2380) and the lower boundary of the rising channel (2350) form a double insurance; as long as this iron bottom holds, all pullbacks are just picking up passengers.
• Epic MACD divergence signal
Pay attention to the daily MACD: new price highs but shrinking momentum bars? False drop! The dogs are playing the old trick of 'golden cross washout', and the fast line on the hourly chart has already turned; as long as it stays above $2550 tonight, it will trigger a short squeeze. Old investors understand that ETH's nature is 'the longer it stays horizontal, the higher it goes'; it oscillated between $1750-$1850 for three months before starting; now it’s only risen to $2500 and you're calling the top? You're thinking too small.
Funding sentiment: Bears do not die while bulls do not stop
• The contract market is bleeding heavily
Yesterday, the entire network exploded with $276 million, with 62% being bear corpses. Now the perpetual funding rate for ETH is still negative, indicating that a bunch of fools are still stubbornly holding short positions. The order book is more exciting: there’s $120 million in sell orders above $2500, but the buy orders below $2450 are twice as thick; the dogs are clearly aiming to wipe out the shorts before slaughtering the chasing retail investors.
• The altcoin season starter is beginning to warm up
When Bitcoin rises to $100,000, it can't pull up altcoins? Normal! But ETH breaking $2500 has a completely different significance—DeFi TVL surged 20% in a single week, Uniswap trading volume hit a yearly high, and as gas fees rise, small dog projects will collectively die. Look at sectors like Frog and PolitiFi, which easily see 30% gains; the ETH ecosystem is the real money printer.
Action: Focus on tonight's U.S. stock market opening: If the Nasdaq continues to surge, ETH is likely to follow suit and rise.
Remember, in a bull market, don’t guess the top; all pullbacks are just picking up passengers. The altcoin season engine has already been ignited; at this time, not going long on ETH is worse than uninstalling the exchange!
Dog signal: $2500 is not the top, it’s the pre-flight security check!
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