The cryptocurrency market, U.S. Treasury bonds, and the financial war: a game that ordinary people absolutely cannot play.
We are all 'financial illiterates' but have to fight against Wall Street.
From elementary school to university, no one taught us how to make money in the stock market or cryptocurrency market. What we learned in school was the mindset of working for someone else, while the financial market is a game of plunder. Retail investors rush into the market thinking they can get rich, but in reality, they are gambling against a group of professional institutions, hedge funds, and quantitative machines. They hold information, funds, and policy directions, and can even manipulate market sentiment. As for retail investors? They can't even read candlestick charts but dare to go all in; isn't that just giving away money?
Recently, Bitcoin plummeted; on the surface, it was market volatility, but in reality, it was the big players in the U.S. stock market dumping shares to replenish their positions. The deeper logic is the game between Trump and the Federal Reserve (Powell). If Powell listens to Trump and cuts rates, the Federal Reserve will have to listen to the White House in the future; if Trump listens to Powell, the U.S. government will be controlled by the Federal Reserve. Now both sides are playing a 'chicken game' – 'Are you afraid of a recession? If not, I'll keep going.'
A few days ago, Trump stated: 'Young people should go to work, don’t play finance.' This statement has hinted at the upcoming script – the financial market will become more turbulent, and ordinary people shouldn't expect to make money easily.
Bitcoin is not important; U.S. Treasury bonds are the core.
Trump doesn't care about the stock market or cryptocurrency fluctuations; what he truly cares about is U.S. Treasury bonds. Because U.S. Treasury bonds are the foundation of U.S. stocks and the dollar. Last time he waged a tariff war, U.S. Treasury bonds were dumped wildly, and the American financial system nearly collapsed; he immediately backed down.
So how to stabilize U.S. Treasury bonds? Blow up Bitcoin and bind stablecoins to U.S. Treasury bonds!
- The U.S. may introduce an official stablecoin, pegged to U.S. Treasury bonds at a ratio of 1:2 or 1:3, forcing the market to take over.
- Raise Bitcoin to $1 million and Ethereum to tens of thousands of dollars to attract global funds.
- Want to buy Bitcoin? First buy stablecoins! Stablecoins are also linked to U.S. Treasury bonds, so the money ultimately flows back to the U.S. government.
Now the United States is raising gold exports, while Eastern powers are buying gold like crazy. Behind this is the financial war between the two major economies. As retail investors, we can only wait for a signal: when will the Federal Reserve unleash massive liquidity? Once liquidity is unleashed, the dollar will depreciate, and the financial market will have a brief celebration, but what follows may be a bigger storm.
Market liquidity is exhausted; market makers can manipulate it at will.
In today's market, liquidity is nearly dried up. Money has nowhere to go; the market makers can drive prices up or down at will.
- Bitcoin fluctuating by 10% in a day? Normal.
- Is Ethereum's upgrade a good thing? If everyone thinks so, then it's bad news.
After the real big money flows out of U.S. Treasury bonds, it hasn't entered the U.S. stock market nor fully into the cryptocurrency market; instead, it has gone into gold, Hong Kong stocks, and Southeast Asia. What does this indicate? Global capital is seeking safety, and the dollar system is loosening.
Powell wants to cut interest rates, but lowering rates will push up inflation; not lowering rates will tighten liquidity, and U.S. Treasury bonds may crash. What to do? First, crash global assets to make the dollar appear stronger, then harvest when the liquidity floods in. This tactic has been played by the U.S. for decades, but this time it may backfire.
Trump is repeating the tragedy of 1929.
Historically, there was a president named Hoover (the scapegoat of the Great Depression in 1929). He was also a businessman who promised 'a chicken in every pot, a car in every garage,' but as a result of tariff policies, the U.S. stock market crashed, and America entered a decade-long depression.
Now Trump is also doing something similar – shorting America, making $30 billion while the country evaporates $6 trillion. A businessman as president only sees profit; the economy? That's secondary.
This level of fluctuation in the cryptocurrency market is insignificant in the face of a U.S. Treasury bond crisis. Today, the market makers say Bitcoin is falling with U.S. stocks; tomorrow they can say it's a safe-haven asset. Don't believe this nonsense; look at the data:
- Where money flows, there will be increases.
- The Federal Reserve will definitely unleash liquidity because Trump wants to bring manufacturing back, which requires lower interest rates and a weaker dollar.
Future market: crash or explosive bull market?
In the short term, the market is still a monkey market (jumping up and down), but in the long term, it will definitely be a big bull market because:
1. U.S. Treasury bonds can't be repaid; they must rely on cryptocurrencies for blood transfusion.
2. Stablecoins are linked to U.S. Treasury bonds; the higher the coin price, the more people will take over.
3. Rate cuts are inevitable; money will flow into the financial market, and the cryptocurrency market is one of the largest reservoirs.
Strategy:
- Hold onto mainstream coins; don't get shaken out by volatility.
- Pay attention to Federal Reserve policies; rate cuts are the charge signal.
- Don't trust any 'analysts'; look at the money flow, look at the Treasury bond data.
The last sentence:
The financial market is a battlefield, not a casino. The cryptocurrency market has already passed the era of barbaric growth; news and resources, understanding cycles, and position management are far more important than technology. How can one person fight against market makers alone? The Eastern powers have already unleashed liquidity, and the U.S. is set to cut rates in July; now the custodians are directly signing for capital preservation offline.
Which coins are hot, have the main players entered, are large holders bottom-fishing, how to operate – we know better than retail investors.