In cryptocurrency contract trading, long strategies need to combine trend confirmation, momentum verification, and overbought/oversold signals. Here is a strategy framework based on EMA as the core, combined with MACD and RSI:
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### 1. Trend Analysis: EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
- Core Logic: EMA is more sensitive to recent prices, suitable for capturing short-term trends.
- Common parameters: 7 EMA (short-term), 25 EMA (medium-term), 50/200 EMA (long-term trend filtering).
- Long Signal:
- Bullish Alignment: Short-term EMA > Medium-term EMA > Long-term EMA (such as 7 > 25 > 50).
- EMA Cross: Short-term EMA crosses above medium-term EMA (such as 7 crossing 25), forming a 'Golden Cross'.
- Price pulls back to EMA support: after the price tests EMA (such as 7 or 25), rebounds are seen as trend continuation signals.
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### 2. Momentum Verification: MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
- Core Logic: MACD confirms trend strength and reversals through fast and slow line crossings and histogram changes.
- Parameter Optimization: default (12,26,9) is suitable for cryptocurrency markets.
- Long Signal:
- MACD Golden Cross: fast line (DIF) crosses above slow line (DEA), histogram turns from negative to positive.
- Histogram expansion: positive histogram continues to expand, indicating increased upward momentum.
- Divergence Signal: Price makes a new low but MACD does not (bottom divergence), possibly indicating a reversal.
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### 3. Overbought and Oversold Filtering: RSI (Relative Strength Index)
- Core Logic: RSI measures market overbought/oversold conditions to avoid chasing highs and cutting losses.
- Parameter Optimization: 14 periods (balancing sensitivity and noise).
- Long Signal:
- Oversold rebound: RSI < 30 rises above 30, combined with the trend to go long.
- RSI in trend: In an uptrend, RSI pulls back to around 50 and rebounds, considered a second entry point.
- Divergence Signal: Price makes a new high but RSI does not (top divergence), beware of trend exhaustion.
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### 4. Multi-Strategy Combination Logic
1. Trend Confirmation:
- EMA bullish alignment (7 > 25 > 50) and the price stabilizes above the short-term EMA (such as 7 or 25).
- Long-term EMA (such as 200) tilting upwards, filtering the direction of larger cycles.
2. Momentum Coordination:
- MACD Golden Cross and histogram continues to expand, avoid chasing highs during low-volume increases (histogram shrinking).
3. Risk Filtering:
- Be cautious when chasing gains with RSI > 70, wait for a pullback or combine with other signals for confirmation;
- RSI in 50-70 range and trend is upward, considered a healthy rise.
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### 5. Entry and Stop Loss
- Entry Timing:
- Price pulls back to EMA support (such as 7 or 25) and MACD Golden Cross/histogram strengthens.
- RSI rebounds from the oversold zone to above 50, combined with EMA bullish alignment.
- Stop Loss Settings:
- Breaking key EMA (such as 25) or previous low support.
- MACD histogram weakens or RSI quickly drops below 50.
- Take Profit Strategy:
- Dynamic tracking EMA (such as 7 or 25), partially take profit when breaking below short-term EMA;
- MACD top divergence or RSI > 80 gradually reduce positions.
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### 6. Notes
- Market Characteristics: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, EMA periods need to be shortened (such as 7/25 replacing traditional 50/200).
- False Signal Filtering: A single indicator is prone to failure; need resonance of three (such as EMA Golden Cross + MACD Golden Cross + RSI Rebound).
- Leverage Risk: Contract trading requires strict position control, avoiding over-reliance on indicators while neglecting risk control.
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Case Illustration (Taking BTC/USDT 1-Hour Chart as an Example):
1. EMA (7,25) Golden Cross, price stabilizes above 7 EMA;
2. MACD Golden Cross and the histogram continues to expand;
3. RSI rebounds from 45 to 55, not overbought;
4. Enter a long position, set stop loss 2% below 25 EMA, target previous highs.
By coordinating multiple indicators, the win rate and risk-reward ratio of long strategies can be improved.