In May 2025, global attention focused on Lake Geneva. The joint statement reached by China and the U.S. here not only pressed the 'pause button' on years of bilateral trade friction but also unexpectedly revealed a dark line closely intertwined with the cryptocurrency market—when traditional international trade rules collide with decentralized Bitcoin, a market game about 'hedging uncertainty' is unfolding.
I. Geneva Agreement: The '90-Day Buffer Zone' in China-U.S. Economic and Trade Relations
In this document numbered 'Joint Statement of the China-U.S. Geneva Economic and Trade Talks', both sides exhibited a rare pragmatic attitude. The U.S. promised to amend three executive orders that would take effect in April 2025, suspending the implementation of a 24% tariff on Chinese goods (including Hong Kong and Macau) for 90 days, while retaining a 10% basic tariff and canceling additional tariffs from the other two executive orders. China simultaneously adjusted the announcement from the Tax Commission, suspending the 24% counter-tariff, canceling two targeted tariff measures, and terminating non-tariff barriers implemented since April 2.
This 'bilateral tariff loosening' is viewed by economists as 'balancing act in a crisis'. Data shows that the trade volume between China and the U.S. is expected to decrease by 12% year-on-year in 2024, and the suspended 24% tariff involves approximately $300 billion worth of goods, effectively opening a short-term duty-free market worth $72 billion for both enterprises. More critically, the statement first clarified the 'third-country consultation mechanism', with a negotiating team composed of Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, and Trade Representative Tai establishing a routine communication channel in China, the U.S., or third-party countries, laying a systemic foundation for subsequent long-term agreement negotiations.
II. The 'Tariff Hedge' Narrative of Bitcoin: From Conspiracy Theory to Market Consensus?
Just as the market cheers for the tariff loosening, the cryptocurrency sector has sparked a fierce debate on the 'use case value of Bitcoin'. Looking back to April 7, when U.S. Executive Order 14257 was implemented and the 24% tariff officially took effect, Bitcoin's price was experiencing a 'Black Monday', plummeting from $85,000 to $75,000. However, strangely, while the S&P 500 index cumulatively dropped 5.2% throughout April, Bitcoin rebounded to $95,000 by the end of the month, achieving a monthly increase of 27%, creating a phenomenon of 'stock-coin divergence'.
Cryptocurrency analyst 'Daan Crypto' captured this unusual resilience and proposed the 'Tariff Evasion Tool' hypothesis: against the backdrop of high tariffs imposed by both China and the U.S., some companies may bypass traditional banking settlement systems and customs supervision through the decentralized characteristics of Bitcoin to achieve low-cost cross-border fund transfers. This narrative has been indirectly confirmed in blockchain data—Bitcoin on-chain transfer volume between China and the U.S. surged by 45% month-on-month in April, with the median transaction amount jumping from $200,000 to $350,000, indicating an increase in institutional user participation.
What deserves more attention is the 'Liberation Day' effect. On April 28, the so-called 'Tariff Liberation Day' in the U.S., the Bitcoin to USD exchange rate rose by 8% within 24 hours, while the RMB to USD exchange rate fluctuated only by 0.3% during the same period. This 'asymmetric fluctuation' was interpreted by the market as 'risk release after tariff expectations are fulfilled', meaning that when real enterprises face soaring tariff costs, the demand for Bitcoin as a 'digital hedge asset' is temporarily activated.
III. Bull-Bear Duel: Divergence in Bitcoin's Fate After the Agreement
As of May 11, when the White House announced 'substantial progress in trade agreements', market divergences regarding Bitcoin reached a peak. The bearish camp, represented by 'Daan Crypto', has a clear logical chain: if trade uncertainty was the core driving force behind Bitcoin's strength earlier, then when the 24% tariff is suspended and China-U.S. enters a 90-day 'cooling-off period', funds will flow back to traditional assets, and Bitcoin's excess returns should end. The 'BTC/SPX ratio chart' they created shows that from April 7 to May 10, the premium rate of Bitcoin relative to the S&P 500 reached a historical high of 32%, indicating a strong mean reversion demand.
The bulls countered with the 'liquidity reallocation' theory. BTSE COO Jeff Mei pointed out that the tariff agreement reduces the global trade friction premium, and the Federal Reserve may begin its rate-cutting cycle early. These two factors are prompting institutional investors to reassess the allocation value of cryptocurrencies. HashKey Capital researcher Jupiter Zheng's viewpoint is even more disruptive: if the China-U.S. agreement leads to a weakening of the dollar's status as a reserve currency (for example, both sides increase the proportion of local currency settlement in some trades), Bitcoin's anti-inflation property as 'digital gold' will gain new momentum, potentially breaking through the $100,000 mark to set a new historical high.
The market sentiment index corroborated this divergence. On May 12, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index plummeted from a 'Greed' range (72 points) a week earlier to 'Neutral' (55 points), the number of whale addresses holding over 10,000 bitcoins decreased by 12, while the exchange reserves simultaneously dropped by 1.8%, indicating that some institutions are shifting from short-term speculation to long-term hoarding.
IV. Beyond Tariffs: Is Bitcoin Restructuring the Global Value Storage Paradigm?
This duel between bulls and bears surrounding the China-U.S. trade agreement essentially reflects the deep transformation of the global financial system. When traditional international trade rules face geopolitical shocks, decentralized cryptocurrencies are showing their unique advantages: cross-border settlements without relying on the SWIFT system, value transfers that evade unilateral sanctions, and digital asset properties that combat inflation.
Data shows that by 2024, the proportion of cryptocurrency use in global trade settlement has reached 3.7%, growing 20 times since 2020. In this China-U.S. tariff game, some electronic manufacturers in Shenzhen have achieved 'tariff cost hedging' through Bitcoin smart contracts—linking the export prices of goods to Bitcoin, so that when tariffs cause profit shrinkage, the appreciation of Bitcoin can cover the extra costs. This new risk control model of 'real industry + cryptocurrency' is quietly gaining popularity among technology companies in the Pearl River Delta and California's Silicon Valley.
The far-reaching impact lies in the reconstruction of the monetary credit system. Former U.S. Treasury official Paul Craig Roberts pointed out that if China and the U.S. continue to promote the pilot program of 'settling some tariffs in Bitcoin' (although the joint statement has not mentioned it), it will break the dollar-dominated international trade pricing system. The fixed total supply of 21 million bitcoins naturally provides a characteristic against monetary over-issuance, which is highly attractive to emerging market countries suffering from the dollar cycle.
V. 90-Day Window: When Pragmatism Meets Market Magic
Returning to the Geneva Agreement itself, the 90-day tariff suspension period leaves a negotiation buffer for both parties but also creates 'time arbitrage' space in the financial markets. For Bitcoin, this is both a window to verify the authenticity of the 'tariff hedge' narrative and a crucial period to gain recognition from the mainstream financial system.
In an optimistic scenario, if China and the U.S. reach a permanent exemption agreement on tariffs for certain industries within 90 days, the demand for Bitcoin as a 'risk asset' may temporarily decline, but its recognition as a 'new species of digital asset' will significantly increase; in a pessimistic scenario, if the tariff war resumes after 90 days, Bitcoin may truly enter the mainstream series of 'global trade hedging tools', alongside gold and Swiss franc, forming a 'three-dimensional hedging system'.
Regardless of the outcome, the intertwining of the China-U.S. economic and trade agreement with the Bitcoin market has outlined a future where decentralized finance and traditional international trade deeply integrate. When tariff barriers collide with blockchain technology, and when national games resonate with market magic, what we are witnessing is not merely a temporary adjustment of tariffs but a paradigm shift in the global value storage system. Perhaps as Daan Crypto wrote at the end of the report: 'The true victory of Bitcoin lies not in defeating the dollar or the renminbi, but in proving that humanity needs more diversified value anchors—whether in trade wars or peace agreements, this demand for diversification will eternally exist.'
In this era full of uncertainty, a paper agreement on the shores of Lake Geneva may be the key to unlocking a new era for cryptocurrency. As tariff numbers leap on documents and Bitcoin candlesticks fluctuate on screens, these two seemingly unrelated entities are jointly writing a marvelous chapter in the era of globalization 2.0.