The story of the trade war has cooled down, but President Trump still has a major issue: that is the interest rates on U.S. government bonds continue to rise.

This year, the U.S. has to refinance about 9 trillion USD in maturing government bonds, equivalent to about 25% of the total federal debt, which is currently at 36.8 trillion USD.

Most of the previous debt was issued at an interest rate of about 2.7%, but now it may need to be refinanced at an interest rate of about 4.45%, leading to annual interest costs potentially doubling from about 245 billion USD to over 500 billion USD.

President Trump needs lower interest rates, but:

- When there are concerns about the trade war, countries sell U.S. bonds, causing interest rates to rise.

- When there are no longer concerns about the trade war, investors sell bonds to buy stocks, causing interest rates to rise.

- When there is nothing happening, interest rates remain high because the FED refuses to lower them.

In general, the FED is still the key to this issue.