Prediction markets have cemented themselves as a product category. Polymarket sees consistent monthly volumes upwards of $800m, hundreds of thousands of MAUs, and millions of monthly trades.

Politics and sports are still the largest drivers of prediction market volumes on Polymarket.

But where does growth go from here? Some pathways towards prediction market growth.

1) Broader expansion of existing political markets

Political markets are still nascent, but seem widely popular. Can political markets in themselves be large exchanges.

2) New products for top traded markets

While sports betting is already fairly saturate, crypto financial products like perps can probably be applied to sports. Even parlays for election markets or longer tail markets could make payouts more interesting.

3) UGM - user generated markets

User generate markets are an untapped potential for prediction markets that can allow prediction/event markets to populate in new ways. UGC markets can expand the long tail of markets and incorporate prediction markets into social experience and live events.

4) New markets or existing market growth

Most other categories of prediction markets haven't grown that much over the past several months since prediction markets popularized. Maybe it just takes time for the new consumer behavior to substantiate. Maybe it needs other industries (e.g. science and drug trial reporting) to become more robust. Or it could just require the emergence of new markets (e.g. will Meta beat earnings this week).