[MARKET CONTEXT]
After months of escalating tension, positive signals have just emerged from the two largest economies in the world – the US and China – regarding the gradual reduction of trade barriers and the resumption of high-level negotiations. The hashtag #TradeWarEases has begun to spread across economic media channels, reflecting expectations that global supply chains will gradually stabilize again. This is a fundamental factor that helps speculative capital return to high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
[TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND CASH FLOW]
On-chain data shows a slight increase in the amount of stablecoins deposited into exchanges over the past 48 hours, especially on Binance and OKX, indicating signs of preparation to open positions from whales. The BTC Dominance index has stabilized around 54%, opening up the possibility for altcoins to recover. Meanwhile, ETH and layer 1s like SOL, AR, and NEAR are forming a 'breakout accumulation' pattern on the 4H frame – a sign of a medium-term uptrend if the market maintains enthusiasm from geopolitical news.
[INVESTMENT STRATEGY]
• Mid-term altcoins: Prioritize coins with strong ecosystems and solid fundamentals like NEAR, MAGIC, LDO, and AR. Can split Long orders according to each breakout phase, setting SL tightly below the old accumulation zone.
• Reference entry zone (for some prominent coins):
• NEAR: Entry 3.2 – SL: 2.95 – TP: 3.5 and 4.1
• MAGIC: Entry 0.19 – SL: 0.158 – TP1: 0.225 – TP2: 0.26
• BTC and ETH: Can hold part of the portfolio with the expectation that 'market demand anchor' remains stable as good news spreads.
[CHANGE SCENARIO]
If tensions suddenly return (unfavorable news about import taxes, negotiations collapsing), it is necessary to immediately exit high-risk positions and observe the DXY index (Dollar Index). A strong increase in DXY will pull money back to USD, putting short-term selling pressure on the crypto market.
