This China-US negotiation is really something you've never seen before!
After four years of strangling each other during the Trump era, they can now actually talk face to face in Geneva behind closed doors for two days, for a full 10 hours without any arguments - this situation was unimaginable before!
This time, China directly put its words on the table: the new tariffs must be withdrawn in full, and fentanyl should not be used as a bargaining chip to play the exchange game; it is not your turn to make decisions on strategic resources such as rare earths; China sets its own rules for technology wars, exchange rate wars, and subsidy wars, and will not indulge your unilateralism! What's even more ruthless is that it directly brought out WTO rules - we must act in accordance with international law, and don't try to make the "America First" local tyrant clause!
What about the US side? They said they would cut the 145% tariff to 80%, and later it was rumored that they would cut it to 34%, but anyone with a discerning eye knew that this was a smokescreen. The core conditions are still the same old three: the trade deficit must be reduced, the fentanyl issue must be "coordinated", and the tariffs must be equal - to put it bluntly, they want China to make unilateral concessions.
On the first day, the negotiation table was full of swords and sabers. Both sides were like fighting cocks, and neither side was willing to blink first. As a result, the two sides suddenly changed their faces on the second day, directly announcing that "substantial progress" had been made, and they also decided on the spot to let Ho and Bessant take the lead in establishing a long-term consultation mechanism. US Treasury Secretary Yellen was even more cunning, and she just said a "productive" ostentatious remark, but kept silent about the specific terms - this trick was exactly the same as when the trade agreement was signed that year!
The capital market reacted most realistically: US stock futures took off directly at the opening, the Nasdaq soared 1.5%, and Chinese stocks were even more fierce. The China Golden Dragon Index surged 6% last Friday. As soon as the A-shares opened today, technology stocks rushed up like chicken blood. AI computing power and semiconductor equipment sectors obviously had funds ambushed in advance. This wave of smell is more sensitive than dogs!
The exchange rate market is even more obvious. The offshore RMB soared 800 points in three days, directly regaining the 7.1 mark, and foreign capital risk preference has completely returned. Gold, a safe-haven asset, plunged, but oil prices rose in line with demand expectations - capital flows are more accurate than weather forecasts!
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