May 12 Market Analysis
Looking back at last week's market, Long Ge also reviewed and summarized it. From the weekly chart, this wave of increase did not deceive, as the volume of the rebound candlestick at the bottom and the formation of the MACD golden cross above the axis are evident. The indicators that previously deceived have all held true this time, and the consecutive five bullish weekly candles have been enough to take down the bears.
Returning to today’s market, last week's weekly candle is still a strong bullish bar. Since it has chosen to stabilize above 100,000, the mindset needs to shift. There might be even greater movements on the way, and this week’s closing can only be a continuation of bullish candles or a doji.
On the daily chart, the market adjusted at a high level over the weekend. The 5-day moving average has been supporting a healthy rise. However, we saw a bearish candlestick with a two-in-one appearance in terms of volume. Here, we need to pay attention to whether there will be a shift at this level that requires a pullback, because in the previous two instances of shifting range, the bullish volume was significantly sufficient, while the fluctuations observed over the last three days are somewhat different.
On the four-hour chart, we have just reached the end phase of the Bollinger Bands' contraction. After the contraction completes, a new range of fluctuations needs to be identified. We still need to be wary of the short-term MACD pullback risk to avoid being trapped by chasing highs.
On the hourly chart for the day, there is an upward trend in fluctuations. Whether this trend can continue to break upwards depends on whether there will be pressure on the four-hour chart. For now, both the fifteen-minute and one-hour charts are in an upward fluctuation. From a smaller timeframe perspective, the first consideration is whether the Vegas channel on the fifteen-minute chart can hold. From the four-hour view, it’s about whether it will suppress the breakout of the smaller timeframe. If the four-hour Bollinger Bands contract and fluctuate towards the lower band, the smaller timeframe will be suppressed. $BTC #山寨季何时到来
Upper resistance: 106000-110000
Lower support: 103000-101750
