As the White House confirms “substantial progress” in trade negotiations between the United States and China, the crypto world watches Bitcoin closely to determine whether it truly functions as a safe-haven asset — or if recent price surges were merely driven by macro uncertainty.

On May 11, the White House revealed that the ongoing talks had been productive, with full details expected soon. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated, “We will be giving details tomorrow, but I can tell you that the talks were productive.”

Bitcoin’s Strength Amid Global Turbulence

Throughout April, Bitcoin showed resilience during a volatile period for traditional markets. After plunging to $75,000 on April 7, Bitcoin quickly rebounded, closing the month at $95,000, a 27% increase. During the same period, major indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted declines, highlighting a divergence between traditional equities and digital assets.

According to prominent trader Daan Crypto, Bitcoin’s outperformance may have stemmed from speculation that countries were using BTC to circumvent trade tariffs imposed by the U.S. administration. However, he argues that if this theory holds, Bitcoin should lose momentum once a trade agreement is finalized.

“If the trade uncertainty was what was making BTC outperform, it should stop outperforming after we hit the most important deal, which includes China,” Daan said.

But if Bitcoin maintains or extends its gains even after a finalized deal, it could indicate that tariffs and macro headlines have less impact on Bitcoin than previously thought.

Institutions and Analysts Expect Upside with Trade Clarity

Jeff Mei, COO of crypto exchange BTSE, believes that institutional investors are becoming more confident in Bitcoin as US-China negotiations near resolution.

“We believe that institutional investors are less apprehensive about investing in Bitcoin and crypto as US-China trade talks come to a conclusion and the likelihood of rate cuts increases,” Mei told Cointelegraph.

Meanwhile, Jupiter Zheng, researcher at HashKey Capital, sees the trade agreement as a potential catalyst for global capital flow into alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies.

“A US-China trade deal could signal stability in global markets, potentially driving investors to seek growth opportunities and send capital into alternative assets,” Zheng explained.

He added that a weaker U.S. dollar or renewed liquidity in emerging markets could also help push Bitcoin to new highs.

Cautious Optimism from Market Veterans

Still, some analysts believe the market is waiting on a concrete and official announcement before making its next move. Crypto commentator Will Clemente remarked that momentum is “starting to stall out” for the first time in a while.

“Feels like you’re gonna need a real, tangible announcement on the China front to keep things moving here locally,” Clemente noted.

As Bitcoin holds firm and awaits the next macroeconomic signal, traders and analysts continue debating whether BTC is truly evolving into a global hedge asset or simply reacting to market noise.



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