The recent rise of Bitcoin has attracted the attention of investors as its price approaches $105,000. The leading cryptocurrency has gained momentum over the past month, fueled by strong institutional interest and renewed optimism in the market.

However, conflicting market conditions may keep Bitcoin from reaching a new historical high.

Bitcoin holders are actively accumulating.

Investor activity has been predominantly bullish. In the past week alone, over 30,072 Bitcoins, worth more than $3.13 billion, were purchased. This spike in buying activity has reduced the net position on exchanges to its lowest level in four months.

This metric indicates that more tokens are being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited, which is a classic sign of accumulation.

The fear of missing out on profits drives Bitcoin holders to accumulate quickly. As Bitcoin hovers around its record highs, long-term investors seem to be adding to their positions, betting on a new breakout. While accumulation remains strong, the macro trend shows a mixed picture. The Liveliness indicator, a key on-chain metric, has seen significant growth since early May. It is currently at a multi-week high, suggesting that long-term holders (LTHs) are starting to liquidate.

An increase in Liveliness generally indicates that dormant tokens are becoming active again, often signaling that early supporters are taking profits. Such behavior may introduce new selling pressure in the market.

If long-term Bitcoin holders continue to sell off their assets, it could undermine the bullish sentiment driven by fresh accumulation. The price of Bitcoin aims to reach a new historical high.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $104,231, slightly below the key psychological resistance at $105,000. However, technical data shows that actual resistance is at $106,265. This price level acts as a ceiling since December 2024, preventing Bitcoin from gaining further momentum.

Despite the historical high of $109,588, the mark of $106,265 is the closest obstacle for Bitcoin. Market dynamics, including sales from long-term holders and conflicting investor sentiment, make this level particularly challenging to overcome.

If Bitcoin fails to overcome this resistance, a price correction to $100,000 remains likely. Conversely, if Bitcoin can break through and turn $106,265 into a support floor, it may restore bullish momentum. Such a move would open the path for Bitcoin to recover to $109,588 and potentially reach a new historical high.

Overcoming this level would nullify the bearish forecast and could set the stage for growth to $110,000.