Original Title: (Is $100,000 Just the Starting Point? Miners' Holdings Hit New Cycle Lows + U.S.-China Tariff Exemptions, Bitcoin Enters Frenzy Mode)
Original Author: Lawrence, Mars Finance
Part One: Bitcoin Miners' Selling Pressure Drops to Lowest Since 2024 - Is the Market Gearing Up for New Highs?
1. Shift in Miners' Behavior: From Selling to Holding
According to the latest data from cryptocurrency analysis platform Alphractal, the selling pressure indicator for Bitcoin miners (measuring the ratio of outflows to reserves over 30 days) has fallen below the lower limit, reaching its lowest level since 2024. This phenomenon indicates that miners are shifting from the past model of 'selling to cover operational costs' to strategic accumulation.
This stands in stark contrast to the predicament of miners' income halving after the 2024 halving event (when daily selling volume increased from 900 coins to 1,200 coins), but the changes in the current market environment have prompted miners to adjust their strategies:
· Profit Expectations Driving Accumulation: With Bitcoin prices recently breaking $100,000 and nearing historical highs, miners are more inclined to hold Bitcoin for higher returns rather than cashing out short-term.
· Structural Optimization in the Industry: The scale of mining led by publicly listed companies (e.g., Bitfarms, CleanSpark) has reduced the exit risk of inefficient miners, and the increase in industry concentration has alleviated selling pressure.
· Historical Experience Reference: In past cycles, excessive leverage and long-term holding by miners led to liquidity crises (such as the 2018 bear market), and now there is a greater focus on short-term financial stability.
2. Market Resilience Revealed by On-chain Data
Alphractal's miner selling pressure indicator shows that the current market structure is distinctly different from the 'panic selling' of early 2024:
· Long-term Holders Dominate: Currently, over 80% of Bitcoin is held for more than 6 months, far below the short-term holders' dominance ratio at historical cycle peaks, providing stable support for prices.
· Trading Platform Reserves at New Lows: Bitcoin trading platform reserves continue to decline, indicating that the market is in a 'high-speed accumulation phase,' with selling pressure dispersed by over-the-counter trading or institutional holdings.
· Derivatives Market Risks: Although the spot market is stable, there are a large number of highly leveraged long positions in the $100,000 to $110,000 range, and price fluctuations could trigger a wave of liquidations worth billions of dollars.
3. Price Trends and Future Expectations
As of May 12, 2025, Bitcoin's price stood at $104,250, with a 24-hour increase of 1%, and a cumulative rise of over 30% in the past month. The focal point of market divergence regarding future trends lies in:
· Technical Signals: RSI (75) indicates overbought conditions, but MACD continues to rise; if the key support level of $10,000 is breached, it may trigger selling from short-term holders.
· Impact of Macroeconomic Variables: Expectations for Fed rate cuts (if cuts exceed 100 basis points in 2025) may present a 'Davis Double' opportunity for Bitcoin, but stagflation risks could weaken its safe-haven attributes.
· Dynamic Miners' Behavior: If the price breaks above $110,000, selling pressure from miners may rise; however, the current low selling levels suggest that the market may enter a 'calm upward phase.'
Part Two: Market Concerns Behind the 'Substantial Progress' of the U.S.-China Trade Agreement
1. White House Statements and Agreement Outlines
On May 11, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer jointly announced that substantial progress has been made in U.S.-China trade negotiations, with both sides reaching a principled consensus in the following areas:
· Market Access: China has committed to expanding imports of U.S. agricultural products, and the extension of tariff exemptions on certain U.S. tech products.
· Intellectual Property Protection: Establishing cross-border law enforcement cooperation mechanisms to reduce technology transfer barriers.
· Dispute Resolution Mechanism: Establishing a permanent consultation platform to prevent the escalation of trade frictions.
2. Market Reactions and Concerns
Despite official positive signals, the lack of agreement details has led to cautious optimism among investors:
· Residual Uncertainty: The erratic policies of the Trump administration (such as the 'one-day exemption' of electronic tariffs in 2024) weaken market confidence, and risk assets remain under pressure until agreements are finalized.
· Structural Contradictions Unresolved: The competitive policies of the U.S. and China in areas such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence (e.g., 'Trade War 2.0') may continue through non-tariff means.
· Differentiated Effects on Liquidity: If the agreement pushes the U.S. dollar index (DXY) to fall, Bitcoin may benefit from a revived 'anti-fiat' narrative; however, if negotiations break down and trigger safe-haven demand, gold may divert funds.
3. The Chain Reaction of the Global Economy
The systemic impacts that may arise from the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions include:
· Restructuring Supply Chains: The agreement may accelerate the trend of 'near-shoring,' enhancing the manufacturing hubs in Mexico and Southeast Asia, and increasing demand for cross-border cryptocurrency payments.
· Expectations for Easing Inflation: Tariff reductions are expected to alleviate U.S. CPI pressure, providing space for Fed rate cuts, indirectly benefiting risk assets.
· Geopolitical Risk Shift: If U.S.-China cooperation strengthens, alternative crises such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions may become new sources of market volatility.
Part Three: Market Games and Investment Strategies Interwoven with Dual Main Lines
1. The Resonance of Bitcoin and Macroeconomic Policies
· Interest Rate Sensitivity and Correlation: The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index (0.78) indicates that it remains within the traditional risk asset framework; if the U.S.-China trade agreement boosts tech stocks, Bitcoin may benefit in tandem.
· Miners' Behavior as a Leading Indicator: Historical data shows that after miners' selling pressure hits bottom, Bitcoin often enters an upward cycle (such as the bull market after the miners' capitulation in 2023); the current low selling levels may indicate a similar trend.
2. Risk and Opportunity Assessment
· Short-term Volatility Risks: The accumulation of leverage in Bitcoin derivatives and the ambiguity of U.S.-China agreement details may trigger price fluctuations, with the support level of $10,000 becoming a dividing line between bulls and bears.
· Strengthening Long-term Narrative: The average daily accumulation of Bitcoin ETFs (800 coins) remains higher than miner output (450 coins), with the institutionalization process offsetting some market shocks.
Conclusion: Certainty Logic in a Complex Market
In May 2025, the global market stands at the dual nodes of Bitcoin's 'post-halving cycle' and the 'rebalancing of U.S.-China trade relations.' The low selling pressure from miners and the White House's progress on agreements may seem independent, but they point to a core proposition: asset repricing under liquidity reconstruction. Whether Bitcoin breaks past its previous high or the U.S.-China agreement materializes, the market will ultimately validate a truth - in the collision of the macro iron curtain and cryptocurrency narrative, only assets that combine resilience and efficiency can win long-term victory.
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