Analysis of the four-hour trend of Bitcoin: Ascending flag pattern emerging, short-term long and short opportunities appear
Currently, Bitcoin presents a relatively clear ascending flag structure on the four-hour candlestick chart. Overall, the price is operating within a range, with fluctuations relatively orderly.
The current EMA15 moving average, as short-term trend support, has moved down to around $103,250, which can serve as a reference entry point for short-term long positions. If the price retraces to this level and stabilizes, it provides certain conditions for going long. However, it is important to manage risk; if it breaks below this support level, one should exit in a timely manner.
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Technical Indicators Observation:
- MACD: Currently, the indicator continues to shrink and run downward, showing signs of a top divergence, indicating that short-term upward momentum has weakened.
- DIF and DEA lines: Continuing to expand downward from high positions, indicating that adjustment pressure remains.
- Bollinger Bands status: Overall narrowing, market entering a phase of oscillation convergence, choice of direction is near.
Key reference points:
- Upper pressure: Bollinger Bands upper track is around $105,150
- Middle track support: Approximately $103,250
- Strong lower support: As long as the Bollinger Bands lower track does not break **$101,000**, the overall bullish trend remains valid.
Conservative traders may consider waiting for the price to retrace to the Bollinger Bands lower track before choosing to set up long positions.
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Short-term trading suggestions (mainly small bets for big gains):
🔹 Northward (long) reference points:
- Entry range: $101,300 - $101,000
- Stop loss protection: below $100,500 (control within 500 points)
- Target one: $102,000 - $103,000
- If it breaks through, it can look up to: $104,000
🔹 Southward (short) reference points:
- Entry range: $104,500 - $105,000
- Stop loss protection: above $105,300
- Target one: $104,000 - $103,500
- If it breaks, it can continue to look to: $103,000
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Summary:
The current market is in a phase of oscillation and consolidation, and the direction is still unclear, but the technical pattern shows some continuity. Whether going long or short, one should adhere to the principles of "light positions + stop loss + take profit" to avoid blindly chasing highs and lows.
The core of short-term trading lies in controlling risk, aiming for small losses and large gains, with safety first. Maintain patience and wait for clear signals before acting; the win rate will be higher.
