Cryplon
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I ran 27,068 high-precision quadratic quantile regressions on $BTC price data from the last 5 years.
It took 11 hours of continuous compute time.
What does this analysis revealโand why does it matter?
This chart breaks down how consistent each quantile has been over time by measuring the stability of its curvature (quadratic coefficient) across multiple timeframes.
Each bar shows how much a quantile โwobblesโ when viewed through 10-day, 30-day, and 90-day windows across that 5-year span.
Lower bars = more stability (lower mean absolute deviation), more consistent structural behavior.
To build a reliable model of Bitcoinโs upper quantiles, we first need to identify the most stable baselineโ
the quantile with the lowest curve, the most stable curvature, the smallest slope variation, and the least directional drift.
From that foundation, we can map Bitcoinโs upper quantiles and better understand how price behaves above its long-term structural trend.
New Quantile Model coming soon...
It took 11 hours of continuous compute time.
What does this analysis revealโand why does it matter?
This chart breaks down how consistent each quantile has been over time by measuring the stability of its curvature (quadratic coefficient) across multiple timeframes.
Each bar shows how much a quantile โwobblesโ when viewed through 10-day, 30-day, and 90-day windows across that 5-year span.
Lower bars = more stability (lower mean absolute deviation), more consistent structural behavior.
To build a reliable model of Bitcoinโs upper quantiles, we first need to identify the most stable baselineโ
the quantile with the lowest curve, the most stable curvature, the smallest slope variation, and the least directional drift.
From that foundation, we can map Bitcoinโs upper quantiles and better understand how price behaves above its long-term structural trend.
New Quantile Model coming soon...
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content.ย See T&Cs.
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