Bitcoin Scenarios for Late 2025
1. Bullish Case: BTC Hits $160K+
• ETF inflows continue accelerating.
• Geopolitical and economic instability increases global BTC demand.
• Major corporations (e.g., Apple, Amazon) announce BTC treasury exposure.
2. Sideways Scenario: BTC Stalls Between $95K–$115K
• Profit-taking increases after strong Q2 performance.
• Global liquidity tightens due to interest rate hikes.
• Altcoin market rotation absorbs speculative capital.
3. Bearish Risk: BTC Drops Below $90K
• U.S. introduces unexpected crypto taxation or capital controls.
• Black swan event (e.g., major exchange hack, ETF withdrawal) shakes investor confidence.
• Post-halving miner capitulation causes temporary sell-offs.
4. On-Chain Signals to Watch
• HODLer ratio remains near all-time highs = strong hands.
• Miner outflows are decreasing = bullish sign.
• Exchange balances still trending down = supply shock in play.