Altseason is a period when altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin) demonstrate significant growth, outperforming BTC in returns. This is a time of increased volatility and opportunities for investors. Here are key signs and strategies for participation:
1. Signs of the beginning of altseason
Decrease in Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D)
- BTC's share in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization falls below 40–50%. For example, in 2021, BTC's dominance dropped to 38%, which triggered a rise in Ethereum, Solana, and other altcoins .
- Current dominance level (for 2025) — ~43%, which is close to a critical mark .
Rise in the altseason index
- An index above 75 (on a scale of 100) indicates that over 75% of the top 50 altcoins are growing faster than BTC over the last 90 days. In November 2024, the index reached 78, signaling the start of altseason .
Increase in trading volumes of altcoins
- Growth in volumes on exchanges (e.g., record $3.6 billion in one day for PEPE in 2024) .
- Disproportionate growth in trading altcoins compared to Bitcoin .
Growth of the ETH/BTC pair
- Ethereum often sets the trend for altcoins. A breakthrough of ETH above $3500 (as in March 2024) could trigger overall growth in the alt sector .
Activity in social networks and media
- Increase in discussions about meme coins (DOGE, SHIB, BONK), DeFi projects, NFTs, and AI tokens .
2. When is the best time to start investing?
Optimal market phases
- After Bitcoin's growth: Altseason usually begins when BTC stabilizes after a rally. For example, in 2017 and 2021, altcoins surged after BTC's correction .
- When interest rates decrease: Easing of monetary policy (e.g., the US Fed) stimulates capital inflow into risk assets .
Technological and regulatory triggers
- Launch of updates (e.g., Ethereum Pectra) or approval of crypto ETFs for altcoins .
- Easing of regulatory pressure (as in Hong Kong in 2024) .
3. Strategies for entry
Portfolio diversification
- Invest in different niches:
- Blue chips: Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA) .
- Meme coins: DOGE, SHIB, BONK (high risk/profit) .
- Innovative projects: AI tokens (FET), RWA (Real World Assets), DeSci .
Early entry into promising projects
- Participate in listings on Binance Launchpad or CoinList. For example, tokens like SAGA and PORTAL showed growth of 50–100% after launch .
Use of technical analysis
- Monitor support/resistance levels and RSI. For example, when testing the ETH level of $3,200, one can open a long position .
4. Risks and management
- High volatility: Altcoins can lose 50–70% of their value in days (e.g., SOL's drop from $260 to $120 in 2024) .
- Fraud: Avoid projects without clear utility (e.g., 'empty' meme coins).
- Taking profits: Close part of positions at key levels (e.g., when rising by 100–300%) .
5. Historical examples
- 2017: Growth of Ethereum (+9000%), Ripple (+41,500%) .
- 2021: Solana rose from $20 to $260 in 4 months .
- 2024: AI tokens (FET, AGIX) and RWA projects showed growth of 200–500% .
Conclusion
Altseason is a time of opportunities, but also increased risks. Start investing at the first signs: decline in BTC.D, growth in ETH/BTC, and increase in volumes. Diversify your portfolio, use stop-losses, and monitor regulatory changes. Remember: even in successful periods, it's important to remain cool-headed and take profits .