Ethereum (ETH) has recently surged past $2600, with an increase of over 40% in the last 72 hours, primarily driven by the successful Pectra upgrade, short covering in the futures market ($438 million liquidated), and increased accumulation by whales.

Short-term Trend Assessment

1. Bullish Factors

- Technical: If it holds above $2600, the next targets are $2800-$3000, with historical data showing a potential spike to $4000 within 30 days.

- Capital: Institutions (like Abraxas Capital) have bought $400 million in ETH over the last 3 days, and ETF inflows are increasing.

2. Risk Factors

- If it fails to hold $2600, it may retrace to the support level of $2400-$2450.

- Be cautious of profit taking and changes in macro policies (such as the SEC's final decision on the ETH ETF).

Conclusion: Short-term bias is bullish, but key resistance and market sentiment changes should be monitored.