After Ethereum broke the $2,500 barrier and touched it for a short period before returning around $2,470–$2,480, we are now at an important crossroads, and the question everyone is asking is: is this a real breakout or a bull trap?
What is the market saying?
So far, there has been no consistent daily close above $2,500, and this is what will confirm to us that the resistance has been broken. Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD indicate that Ethereum is in an overbought zone, so it is natural to see a correction soon.
Moving averages provide support around $2,300–$2,350 and this could be a bounce area if there is any decline.
Political and regulatory influences – the big game
The entire crypto market is waiting for the approval of the US Securities and Exchange Commission for Ethereum's ETF funds, and the decision is expected to come during the summer. If approved, it will open the door for massive liquidity from financial institutions, which will clearly push the price up. On the other hand, any delay or tightening of regulations could keep Ethereum in place or even temporarily retreat.
The broader picture
The rise in energy prices indirectly affects Ethereum after the Merge because it consumes less energy, attracting investors looking for green projects. The EIP-1559 fee burning mechanism reduces supply, especially with increased network usage, which is beneficial for the price in the medium term.
Surprise factors
If a massive NFT or GameFi platform built on Ethereum appears, demand will explode suddenly. Any announcement of institutional partnerships or official use of Ethereum in sectors like energy or health will make the market ignite.
Short term: 1 week – 2 weeks
The most likely scenario is a slight correction to the $2,400–$2,450 range for the market to catch its breath. If it stabilizes above $2,500 with a daily close, we will see a quick push to $2,600–$2,650.
Medium term: 1 month – 3 months
With ETF approval and increasing institutional interest, Ethereum could reach $2,800–$3,200. This is the most realistic scenario if things go regulatory and politically in a positive direction.
Practical recommendation
If you plan to enter the market, wait for a correction below $2,400 and start accumulating buying positions gradually, but monitor the daily close. If the price closes above $2,500 consistently, that is a strong signal to start a rising wave. Keep the stop-loss around $2,300 to protect yourself from any sudden reversal.
