$ETH
Ethereum's recent surge from $1700 to $2600, with a more than 40% increase in just three days, certainly got many people's adrenaline pumping. However, seasoned players know that compared to the historical peak of $4878 in November 2021, this price is still about 30% below the 'hole' that needs to be filled! Don't be fooled by the ferocity of the recent rebound; behind it are three flames burning together: 'technical upgrades + short squeeze + favorable policies'—the Pectra upgrade at the beginning of May has significantly enhanced user experience, even making competitors like Solana, a 'fast chain,' sweat a little.
Even more exciting is the futures market, where shorts have been forced to collectively close their positions, resulting in a $438 million liquidation of short positions within three days, which has pushed the price up. The perpetual contract funding rate has soared to 0.15%, leaving leveraged players crying while chasing the price increase. Additionally, the Trump administration is aggressively promoting pro-crypto policies, even swapping in their own brother as SEC chairman. Institutional funds are pouring into ETFs, with a net inflow of over $2.5 billion for 22 consecutive days just by the end of 2024, and analysts are even predicting a surge to $50 billion by 2025...
Whales have already started to play with their heart rates—one whale deposited 20,000 ETH on Kraken, worth $67.6 million. This guy has accumulated 146,000 ETH since March 2024, specifically cashing out at high prices. On the other hand, another big player is stubbornly holding up $110 million in ETH leverage on MakerDAO. Not to mention the macro environment, which is a sword of Damocles—the Federal Reserve is adamant about not lowering interest rates, and just a slight breather in the trade war could send Bitcoin skyrocketing to $100,000, but if the U.S.-China tariffs have a rebound, it could lead to bloodshed at any moment.
Ultimately, Ethereum is like a spring right now—tech enthusiasts point to the Pectra upgrade and L2 ecosystems, shouting 'the harder you compress, the higher it bounces,' while fundamental players focus on ETF fund inflows and institutional holdings for calculations, and gamblers have already gone all-in on leveraged contracts. But historical data also dampens enthusiasm: the remarkable increases of 518% and 161% in Q1 of 2017 and 2021, respectively, must contend with the harsh reality of a 120.4% increase in inflation supply. Plus, there are competitors like Solana and BNB eyeing the market. So, to calmly push for a new historical high, relying solely on technicals is not enough. It depends on whether Trump's policies can translate into real benefits, when the Federal Reserve will ease up, and whether those whale big shots are willing to continue locking up their holdings as 'faithful fans.'
