Analysis and investment strategies for the Bitcoin market. Here are some professional perspectives and frameworks for rational reference:

Historical cycle patterns:

Bitcoin indeed shows a significant 4-year cycle characteristic (related to halving events), but the macro environment differs each time. The bull market after the crash in March 2020 benefited from global central bank quantitative easing, and the current macro environment has shifted to a high-interest-rate cycle.

Valuation dimensions:

Using the annual line to judge highs and lows requires combining more indicators: MVRV ratio (market cap/realized market cap), NUPL (unrealized profit and loss), and other on-chain data can more objectively reflect the market stage. Currently, these indicators show the market is in a moderately high heat range.

Risk control points:

Leverage trading is the main cause of liquidation for most retail investors. Even if bullish in the long term, short-term fluctuations of 20%-30% are extremely common in the cryptocurrency market, so it is essential to strictly control positions (suggested no more than 5% of total assets in a single cryptocurrency).

Current market differences:

Unlike in 2020, the derivatives market is now more than ten times the size of the spot market. Futures funding rates, basis, and other data can reflect market sentiment better than pure prices. Recently, perpetual contract funding rates have remained positive, indicating accumulation of long leverage.

Rational investment suggestions:

Dollar-cost averaging can effectively smooth out volatility risks.

Spot holdings should take precedence over contract trading.

The allocation ratio should not exceed 20% of risk assets.

Continue learning the fundamentals of blockchain (such as the Ordinals protocol, Layer 2 developments, etc.).

The market has risks, and decisions should be based on independent thinking. When social media widely promotes "inevitable rise," there is often a need to be wary of liquidity traps. It is advisable to pay attention to:

The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy path.

Changes in stablecoin supply.

Net inflow data for Bitcoin ETFs.

And other more fundamental indicators of the capital market.

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