After waiting four years, I finally reached this moment. The upward trend on the right side of Bitcoin has been established, and the biggest risk—the shadow of breaking down before the monetary easing—has dissipated. Although the easing policy started a bit late, liquidity has already broken through previous highs, and the entire market is gaining momentum. Once it starts, this will be the most intense primary surge in nearly four years, and the real speculative feast—the altcoin season—is about to commence. How high can altcoins go in this bull market? This is just the beginning.

Recently, various doubts have flooded the market: "There are too many coins, there won't be a general rise," "Institutions only invest in mainstream coins," "There are no new narratives, too many rugs"... These viewpoints seem reasonable, but the conclusions are wrong. The delay in the altcoin season has only one reason—funding has not yet arrived. When will the funding arrive? The answer lies in the cycle. Each market cycle explodes amidst liquidity overflow and depletes as the tide recedes. Observing the candlestick chart, the total market capitalization of altcoins outside the top ten is highly synchronized with global liquidity (M2, central bank balance sheets, etc.), with market capitalization oscillating upwards along the FIB channel. Trends and time are synchronized, and the expansion and contraction of liquidity follow a distinct pattern, with a basic cycle every four years, coinciding with Bitcoin's halving and the U.S. election cycle.

In the past two altcoin seasons, the market surged from 350 million to 76 billion in 2018, a 20-fold increase; and from 12.5 billion to 480 billion in 2022, a 38-fold increase. If the trend continues, where will the peak be in this altcoin season? If the peaks of the previous two seasons are trendlines, by 2025, the current market capitalization of 260 billion is expected to rise to 3.8 trillion, a 15-fold increase, or even higher.

Currently, liquidity has broken through previous highs, and the slope from May to June is extremely steep. Considering the lag effect of market transmission, this slope has advanced by 10 weeks. In the past two years, whenever a similar steep slope has appeared, the total market capitalization of altcoins has almost always surged rapidly. We are very likely to witness new highs in the coming weeks. The primary surge is about to debut, and every pullback is an opportunity to get on board. We are still at the foot of the mountain; once the accelerator is pressed down, there will be no reversing to wait for others.