1. Currency introduction
Worldcoin（$WLD ） @Worldcoin is a blockchain project initiated by OpenAI co-founder Sam Altman in 2020, aiming to achieve a fair digital economy through global identity verification and token distribution. Its core components include:
World ID: A decentralized identity system based on iris scanning (through Orb devices) and zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP), verifying user uniqueness while protecting privacy.
World App: A mobile application integrating cryptocurrency wallet and World ID functions, supporting WLD trading and ecological interactions.
World Chain: An Ethereum Layer 2 blockchain launching in October 2024, optimizing transaction costs and speed.
WLD token: The governance and incentive token of the project, with a total supply of 10 billion tokens, initially distributed as: 75% to the community (distributed through Orb verification), 9.8% to the team, 13.5% to investors, and 1.7% as reserves. Current circulation is approximately 1.5 billion tokens (15%).
Worldcoin aims to promote universal basic income (UBI) through a 'one person, one coin' mechanism, but iris scanning raises privacy and regulatory controversies. Since its launch in July 2023, WLD has shown significant price volatility, reaching a peak of $9 in February 2024.
2. On-chain data analysis
On-chain data reflects Worldcoin's ecological vitality and growth potential:
User scale:
As of May 2025, World ID has over 2 million registered users across 40+ countries. After the addition of Mini App features in World App 3.0 in 2024, daily active users increased by approximately 20%.
Trading and circulation:
WLD's daily trading volume is approximately $300-$400 million, peaking at $800 million in February 2024 (with a coin price of $9). Trading volume stabilized at the beginning of 2025, reflecting market confidence.
Circulation accounts for 15% of total supply, low circulation supports price volatility, but the unlocking of team and investor tokens (23.3%) starting in 2026 may bring selling pressure.
World Chain performance:
World Chain has a daily trading volume of approximately 600,000 transactions, with gas fees 85% lower than Ethereum, attracting DeFi and NFT projects for deployment.
On-chain TVL (Total Value Locked) is approximately $50 million, growing rapidly but at a small scale.
Position concentration:
60% of tokens are controlled by long-term holders (holding for over 6 months), with a decrease in short-term speculators, indicating increased community confidence.
The number of active addresses on-chain is steadily increasing, with approximately 100,000 new addresses added in Q1 2025.
Summary: On-chain data shows growth in users and transactions, World Chain enhances ecological vitality, but unlocking risks need to be monitored.
3. White paper analysis
The Worldcoin white paper (July 2023) outlines the vision of a 'global human economy', with the following key point analysis:
Vision and mechanism:
Through World ID and WLD tokens, Worldcoin aims to provide unique identities and economic incentives for global users, promoting UBI.
The Orb device generates irreversible IrisHash (not raw iris data), combined with ZKP to ensure privacy, but data security remains in question.
Token economics:
Distribution: 75% community, 9.8% team, 13.5% investors, 1.7% reserves.
Unlocking: Initial circulation is 143 million tokens, with a 4-year linear unlocking process, expecting a circulation of 2 billion tokens (20%) by 2025.
Inflation: No clear inflation cap, governance can adjust token issuance, increasing uncertainty.
Technical architecture:
Orb: A high-precision iris scanning device, with Verified Passport verification added in 2024, reducing hardware dependency.
World Chain: A Layer 2 based on Optimistic Rollup, compatible with EVM, supporting ecological expansion.
World ID 3.0: Supports cross-chain identity verification, enhancing interoperability with DeFi and AI projects.
Risk:
Privacy: Iris scanning has triggered regulatory resistance, with countries like South Korea and Spain suspending Orb operations in 2024.
Scalability bottleneck: High production and deployment costs for Orbs, with global coverage speed lower than expected.
Analysis summary: The white paper showcases technological innovation and grand vision, with World Chain and World ID upgrading to empower the ecosystem, but privacy and unlocking risks may weigh on short-term performance.
4. Technical analysis
Based on market data as of May 2025, the following is a technical analysis of WLD:
1. Current price and historical trends
Current price: As of May 9, 2025, the WLD price is approximately $1.10-$1.15 (CoinMarketCap: $1.14, CoinGecko: $1.13).
Historical review:
Listed in July 2023: Reached $5.29 on the first day, then dropped to $1.88.
March 2024 peak: Driven by the AI boom, reached $11.74 (ATH).
October 2024: World Chain goes live, with prices fluctuating between $2.08 and $2.30.
2025 status: At the beginning of the year, the price fell to $0.64 (April low), recently rebounding to $1.10-$1.15, reflecting improved market sentiment.
2. Technical indicators
Moving Average (MA):
50-day SMA: Approximately $0.90 (CoinCodex: $0.866401, recently risen to about $1.00). The price is above the 50-day SMA, indicating short-term bullishness.
200-day SMA: Approximately $1.60 (CoinCodex: $1.596914 expected value in June). The price is below the 200-day SMA, indicating a weak long-term trend.
Trend: The likelihood of the 50-day SMA crossing above the 200-day SMA is increasing, indicating a potential golden cross signal and enhancing short-term momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
Current RSI is about 55.52 (FX Leaders, May 9), in a neutral to bullish zone (30-70).
Not reaching overbought (>70), there is room for growth, but short-term pullback should be monitored.
Bollinger Bands:
Current price is close to the middle Bollinger Band (approximately $1.05), with the upper band around $1.13 and the lower band around $0.95.
Price breaks above the middle band, testing the upper band, indicating moderate buying pressure.
MACD:
The MACD line is above the signal line (FX Leaders), strengthening short-term bullish signals.
However, the ADX (Average Directional Index) is 24.96, indicating weak trend strength, requiring more volume for confirmation.
Trading volume:
24-hour trading volume is approximately $329 million (CoinMarketCap), slightly down from the previous week ($400 million), but still higher than the 30-day average ($289 million).
Recent rebounds accompanied by increased volume show clear buying support.
3. Key price levels
Support level:
$0.95 (recent low, FX Leaders).
$0.86 (near the lower Bollinger Band and April low).
Resistance level:
$1.13 (upper Bollinger Band, recent peak).
$1.30 (CoinLore predicts short-term resistance).
$2.40 (2024 resistance level, AMBcrypto).
Forecast path:
Short-term (1-3 months): If it breaks above $1.13, WLD may test the $1.30-$2.00 range (CoinCodex predicts reaching $3.77 in June).
Mid-term (6-12 months): If market sentiment continues to improve, prices may challenge the $3.50-$5.00 range (CoinMarketCap predicts an average price of $8.03 in 2025).
Breaking above $8 requires significant catalysts (such as an explosion in the World Chain ecosystem or the AI boom).
4. Market sentiment and external factors
Short-term sentiment: CoinCodex reports (May 9) show 18 bullish signals, 8 bearish signals, with overall sentiment neutral to bullish.
AI + Web3 narrative: WLD benefits from the AI sector boom (Render, TAO, etc.), but collaboration with OpenAI is not clear, warranting caution against unmet expectations.
5. Technical summary
WLD is currently in a rebound phase, with prices breaking above the 50-day SMA and approaching the upper Bollinger Band, supported by RSI and MACD for short-term bullishness. However, the 200-day SMA is a resistance, and a lower ADX suggests insufficient trend strength, requiring more volume and positive drivers. A breakout above $1.13 could push it to $2.00, and reaching $8 by 2025 requires ecological progress and market enthusiasm.
5. Basis for WLD breaking $8 in 2025
Ecological catalyst:
World Chain's DeFi and NFT ecosystem is beginning to scale, with TVL growth attracting capital inflows.
If World ID users exceed 5 million, token demand will significantly increase.
Market trend:
Expectations for the 2025 crypto market are uplifting, and WLD, as a high beta asset, is expected to amplify gains.
The AI sector (such as Render, TAO) rose over 100% in 2024, and WLD can leverage this momentum.
Technical momentum:
Golden crosses and volume breakthroughs show strong buying power, with $8 as a reasonable target.
Low circulation (15%) amplifies price volatility, and positive news can trigger rapid surges.
External positives:
If regulations ease (such as some countries lifting the Orb ban), global promotion will accelerate.
Collaboration with OpenAI or other AI projects can ignite market enthusiasm and drive up coin prices.
Risk warning:
Regulation: Privacy controversies may lead more countries to restrict Worldcoin's operations.
Unlocking: 23.3% of tokens will be unlocked starting in 2026, and attention is needed for selling pressure in 2025.
Competition: Other verification projects (like Civic) may divert funds.
