Bitcoin smashed through $100K, peaking at $104K before chilling at $103K. Fuel? US–China trade talks heating up in Switzerland. Markets loved it. BTC flew. But zoom out—the real story is liquidity.
Macro mind Julien Bittel points to global M2 as the key. His chart? A 12-week lag between M2 growth and Bitcoin pumps. When M2 moves, BTC follows.
From 2023 to 2024, global M2 jumped from $98T to $108T. BTC crossed the $100K mark. Then, a pause. M2 stalled mid-2024. BTC dipped—sub-$80K. Bittel called it consolidation. Now? M2’s flying again. We’re at $111T. If history rhymes, BTC could climb into mid-2025.
Not everyone's sold. Analyst Benjamin Cohen says BTC sometimes leads, not follows. He points to 2017 and 2021. BTC topped before M2 did.
Cohen thinks the coin’s rise might predict a liquidity drop, not follow a rise. He also flagged 2022’s crash—M2 hit bottom, but FTX made things worse. So maybe it’s not all about M2. Maybe it’s chaos.
If that’s true, the BTC bounce could be a warning sign, not a bullish one.
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