What happens after Bitcoin stabilizes above 104,000? Do the bears have no ammunition left? What stage is the bull market currently in?

1. Current market pattern: Bears are running out of ammunition, and in the short term, we need to 'wobble' here.

As of May 10, 2025, the latest data shows that after Bitcoin broke the 100,000 USD mark on May 8, it is now steadily above 104,000 USD.

But looking closely at the market, the shorts below 104,000 have basically been 'eliminated', with only a few scattered shorts remaining around 105,000 and 106,000. It's like a battle; the opponent's ammunition is running low. Do you think they can break through 106,000 in the short term? Difficult!

So the next likely scenario will be oscillation between 100,000 and 104,000. Why?

On one hand, the bears have little strength to counterattack; on the other hand, the bulls have not gathered enough 'troops' around this price level. Just like on May 9, when the price oscillated between 102,000 and 103,000, resulting in nearly 200,000 liquidations, with shorts making up almost 87%. Market makers love to use such fluctuations to 'harvest' retail investors following the trend.

2. Where is the bull market now? Let's look at these four stages.

The bull market is like the four seasons, with its own cycle:

1. Despair Stage

(Before December 2024): Bitcoin continues to decline below 90,000, and everyone thinks 'cryptocurrency is over', but this is actually a good time to position yourself.

2. Hesitation Stage

(January-April 2025): The price broke above 100,000 and then fell back; institutions began to cautiously buy, and the market is still uncertain whether the rise is real or fake.

3. Optimism Stage

(Now): Favorable trade agreements between the U.S. and the U.K., the Federal Reserve's interest rates remain unchanged, Bitcoin stabilizes above 104,000, and institutions continue to accumulate, with the Salvadoran government still buying coins, boosting market confidence.

4. Frenzy Stage

(Not yet): When retail investors start borrowing money or mortgaging their houses to go all in, the bull market may be nearing its end, and one should be wary of bubbles.

Three tips for operating in a fluctuating market: remember these points.

1. Be cautious when shorting: There are still some bears around 105,000 to 106,000, and the market makers may deliberately drive the price up to lure you in, then sell off, as was the case on May 8, when many who chased the shorts got liquidated.

2. Don't rush if going long: At this price level, the bullish strength is insufficient, so don't rush to chase the rise. You can wait for the price to pull back to the 100,000 support level or see if there are more shorts above 106,000.

3. Don't panic if holding long-term: If you plan to hold coins for the long term, refer to the practices of those institutions, buying in batches below 100,000, for example, set a target to buy 10,000 coins gradually, and don't be affected by short-term fluctuations.