#山寨季何时到来

Multiple indicators in the cryptocurrency market suggest that the Altcoin Season may be about to begin. Recently, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) broke through $100,000, after which its market dominance rapidly declined from 65% to about 63.89%, which is usually a precursor to funds starting to shift from Bitcoin to altcoins. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) rose nearly 13% within 24 hours, and major altcoins like Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA) also saw increases of over 6% each. Additionally, the ETH/BTC ratio has rebounded from its low since 2020, indicating that funds may be reallocating to altcoins.

According to CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index, the index has risen from 23 to 36. Although it has not yet reached the 'Altcoin Season' threshold of 75, it has shown a clear upward trend.

Macroeconomic factors also support this trend. For example, the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 historically tends to trigger the Altcoin Season approximately 235 days later, suggesting that mid-December 2024 could mark the beginning of the Altcoin Season, potentially lasting until October 2025.

Overall, with Bitcoin's dominance declining, trading volume in altcoins increasing, and supportive macroeconomic conditions, the second quarter of 2025 may be the starting point for the Altcoin Season. Investors should closely monitor market dynamics, cautiously assess risks, and adjust investment strategies in a timely manner.