The Strategy of Offense and Defense in the Rotation Cycle of the Cryptocurrency Market
When the Bitcoin Dominance Index falls below the 52-week moving average (current value 42.7%), this technical signal often indicates a market style shift. Historical data shows that during the two similar market conditions in December 2017 and May 2021, altcoins averaged 87 trading days, with the median return rate of the top 50 tokens reaching 318%. The current position adjustment is essentially riding the wave of capital migration.
【Dynamic Balance Strategy Explanation】
Profit Harvesting Mechanism
It is recommended to convert 30%-50% of the current holdings into actual gains, based on:
Volatility Index breaking the alert line (current VIX-Crypto=76)
Total market cap of stablecoins/Total market cap of cryptocurrencies ratio dropping to the 11.3% danger zone
Perpetual contract funding rate average reaching 0.12%/8h
Reinvestment Roadmap
The fundamental logic of retaining 50% of the position is:
Monitoring CME Bitcoin futures open interest (current 238,000 contracts)
Tracking cash flow of Nasdaq crypto index constituents (such as MicroStrategy)
Waiting for the inflection point of Tether's market cap growth (current monthly issuance of $3.8 billion)
【Three Principles of Risk Control】
Mobile Stop-Loss Line: Lock the cost line at the current price -25%
Liquidity Layering: Allocate 30% of assets to compliant stablecoins like USDC/T
Time Window Setting: Anchor the next rebalancing timing to the approval date of the ETH spot ETF (July 15)
Trader's Notes:
9:15 Execute partial profit-taking on ETH/TRX, retaining core positions
14:30 Transfer 20% of profits to offshore money market funds
Tomorrow's Plan: Initiate grid trading program when BTC falls below 61,000
True market wisdom is reflected in: when everyone is indulging in leveraged euphoria, the clear-minded are reinforcing their defenses; when panic spreads, the rational are quietly laying ambush positions. Remember the lesson from May 2021 - those accounts that did not hedge at the peak of $68,000 had 73% go to zero within two months.
The darkness before dawn tests human nature the most, but surviving warriors understand: true opportunities always belong to those who hold sufficient ammunition and maintain a keen sense of smell. Let us witness together how this capital migration will reshape the power landscape of the cryptocurrency world.
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