The bull market is far from over, but the opportunities for the bears are approaching—a pullback may already be on the way.

Why do we judge this way? Let's start from several key signals:

1. Bitcoin has consistently held above MA5 for more than 20 days.

This is a rare phenomenon; the last time it happened was from December 2020 to January 2021, during which Bitcoin soared from $19,000 to $40,000 in a golden phase. In this round of increase, Bitcoin has again continuously closed strongly, breaking the 28-day record, showing strong bullish momentum but also burying the risk of being overbought.

2. The technical structure has fully broken through, and risks are brewing.

Whether on the daily or weekly chart, Bitcoin has already deviated from its original technical channel and has clearly entered the overbought zone. A similar trend appeared at the end of 2020, where the market doubled in a short period of time, followed by severe fluctuations.

3. The madness of altcoins has begun to show.

Recently, many small coins have doubled in a short time by leveraging hot topics, such as MOODENG, VIRTUAL, PNUT, etc., and have entered the final 'buying spree' phase, which is often one of the signs of a short-term market peak.

Conclusion:

If luck is on our side, Bitcoin can hold on for another week or two; but if there are any market fluctuations, a moderate pullback may occur within this week. From a probability perspective, Bitcoin breaking through $100,000 is not a big issue, but it is more likely to face significant selling pressure between $105,000 and $110,000.

Unlike the end of 2020, this round of market background lacks support from loose monetary policy, and the explosive power may be somewhat suppressed.

The timing of the altcoin season still needs to be awaited.

Currently, the overall market capitalization of altcoins is still far from historical highs, and structural opportunities are greater than systematic explosions. Only when BTC confirms a breakthrough to new highs can the bull market pattern be further confirmed.

For investors who cannot frequently trade, 'holding steady' remains the preferred strategy. In the next six months, as long as it's not a poor-quality project, there are still opportunities for 10x returns.

The typical bull market cycle path is reappearing:

  1. Phase 1: BTC breaks through first, leading the direction;

  2. Phase 2: Mainstream coins like ETH, SOL, SUI, APT, ADA, XRP follow suit;

  3. Phase 3: The top 100 coins in market capitalization initiate catch-up;

  4. Phase 4: Mid and small-cap projects take turns performing, with some increases reaching 200%-300%;

  5. Phase 5: Chaos ensues, FOMO, greed, and FUD emotions fully erupt;

  6. Ultimate phase: Altcoins fall in madness, the market undergoes sharp adjustments, and enters the next cycle.


How to respond to the current market?

Adopt a 'anti-fragile' strategy: large funds can hold BTC, SOL, SUI, ETH, BNB, etc. with peace of mind; small funds can try to participate in hot ecosystems, Meme sectors, and high-heat narrative coins.

Pay attention to position management and avoid greed.

The BNB ecosystem still has potential.

BNB broke through 670 USDT in the short term, with an increase of 7.41%. Historical experience shows that BNB is often a quality hidden object during market pullbacks, especially during new listing fever, as its price usually starts ahead of the market.

It is advisable to pay attention to several key price points:

  • Reduce positions: 665USDT

  • Add positions on pullback: 630USDT

  • Next target: 720USDT

In addition, coins like CAKE, THE, BAKE are also gradually starting and performing well. It is also advisable to pay attention to some old BSC projects, such as Banana S31, TUT, TST, etc., which may welcome a catch-up window.

Is the BMP opportunity coming?

BMP is an old coin, and several noteworthy points have emerged recently:

  1. The long-term accumulation has ended, and the chips have been collected by the whales;

  2. NFT narratives may return in the next wave of the market, and the concept of token swaps has potential;

  3. The community activity is good, especially with a high participation rate from overseas users.

Reference price: 1.5U, if the market starts, there is a significant possibility of returning to the surface or even exceeding previous highs.

Hot sectors sorting

  • AI, MEME, and refining sectors are the three most关注的方向 currently;

  • In MEME coins, PNUT, NEIRO, and BOME have shown outstanding performance and may be giving birth to new leaders;

  • Classic projects like PEPE, DOGE, and SHIB show slightly weak market heat, with funds shifting towards new targets;

  • If the trend and heat continue, PNUT is very likely to secure the top position.


Final reminder:

A sharp drop is an opportunity! When BTC experiences a significant pullback, SUI may become the one to 'buy with closed eyes'.

  • Last bull market: the star was ETH, the dark horse was SOL;

  • This bull market: the star is SOL, and the dark horse may be SUI;

  • The dark horse of the next bull market? The answer may be buried at the bottom of the next bear market.