The expectations for the altcoin season (Altseason) in the encrypted market have shown divergence, but some data has already indicated potential initiation signs. Here are the key observations:

1. Bitcoin Dominance and Capital Outflow

The current Bitcoin dominance is 54.3%, down from the April peak of 57.8%, as funds begin to tilt towards altcoins. On-chain data shows that if the inflow of stablecoins to exchanges continues to exceed the outflow value of Bitcoin, it may trigger capital outflow to altcoins, but the conditions have not yet been fully met.

2. Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment

Ethereum recently broke through $3150, and the ETH/BTC trading pair has risen, indicating increased momentum for altcoins. Tokens like Solana and Cardano have seen a significant increase in trading volume, and technical indicators (such as RSI and MACD) maintain bullish signals, but caution is needed regarding the risk of a Bitcoin rebound.

3. Institutional and Liquidity Factors

The trading volume of altcoins on Binance accounts for 78%, and institutions are accelerating their layout through tools like ETFs, but if Bitcoin's market share rebounds to over 60%, it may suppress the altcoin market. Additionally, macroeconomic policies (such as Federal Reserve interest rate trends) and dollar liquidity remain key variables.

The current market is in the early stages of the altcoin season. If Bitcoin dominance continues to fall below 50% or if leading assets like ETH break through, it may confirm the trend. Investors are advised to pay attention to capital outflow signals and strong narrative sectors (such as AI and RWA), using a phased investment strategy and setting stop-loss orders.