The altcoin season usually occurs a year after the Bitcoin halving, which will take place in April 2024. Theoretically, the liquidity injection in 2025 should trigger this cycle. However, due to Bitcoin's strong dominance from 2024 to 2025, with its market cap accounting for about 60% of the total cryptocurrency market, and the macroeconomic environment featuring high interest rates and quantitative tightening, early-stage altcoins may face difficulties in attracting liquidity. Nevertheless, once Bitcoin's growth stabilizes, the accumulated massive capital may flow into altcoins, driving their prices to surge. Historically, altcoin seasons typically happen after Bitcoin sets a new all-time high and enters consolidation. If Bitcoin stabilizes above $100,000, capital may eventually flow into altcoins.

Some analyses also mention that the probability of an altcoin season occurring in 2025 is about 50%-60%, depending primarily on whether Bitcoin can maintain above $100,000 and trigger capital rotation.

Overall, while it is difficult to precisely determine the timing of the altcoin season, it may arrive when conditions such as Bitcoin's stable performance, increased market liquidity, improved macroeconomic environment, and reduced regulatory uncertainty are met.