The altcoin season usually occurs one year after the Bitcoin halving, with the next Bitcoin halving in April 2024. Theoretically, liquidity injection in 2025 should trigger this cycle. However, due to Bitcoin's strong dominance in 2024-2025, with its market cap accounting for around 60% of the total cryptocurrency market, and the macroeconomic environment featuring high interest rates and quantitative tightening, early liquidity attraction for altcoins faces challenges. However, once Bitcoin's growth stabilizes, the accumulated massive capital may flow into altcoins, driving their prices to surge. Historically, altcoin seasons typically occur after Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high and enters consolidation. If Bitcoin stabilizes above $100,000, capital may eventually flow into altcoins.

Some analyses suggest that the probability of an altcoin season occurring in 2025 is about 50%-60%, primarily depending on whether Bitcoin can maintain above $100,000 and trigger a rotation of funds.

Overall, although it is difficult to precisely determine the timing of the altcoin season, it may arrive when conditions such as stable Bitcoin trends, increased market liquidity, improved macroeconomic conditions, and reduced regulatory uncertainty are met.