#山寨季何时到来

'Altcoin Season' refers to the short-term phenomenon where altcoins surpass Bitcoin to bring high returns. The timing of its arrival is difficult to pinpoint, influenced by various factors:

• Market Cycle Perspective: The cryptocurrency market is cyclical, and altcoin seasons often occur in the last year of Bitcoin's four-year cycle. The altcoin seasons of 2017 and 2021 both happened after Bitcoin reached an all-time high and entered a consolidation phase. If Bitcoin stabilizes above $100,000 in 2025 and enters a steady phase, capital may flow into altcoins, triggering an altcoin season.

• Changes in Relevant Indicators: A decline in Bitcoin's dominance and altcoins outperforming Bitcoin, along with their market capitalization reaching new highs, often signal the arrival of an altcoin season. For example, if Bitcoin's dominance drops from 60% in November 2024 to 51%, and the total market capitalization of altcoins surpasses the peak of November 2021. Additionally, indicators such as the Altcoin Season Index, OTHERS Index, and Google Trends can assist in judgment. When over 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin in the past 90 days (Altcoin Season Index surpasses the 75% threshold), or the OTHERS Index rises significantly, and search interest in altcoins on Google Trends continues to increase, it may indicate the approaching altcoin season.